Phase Space AI

Applied Optoelectronics

AAOI · investment memo

Valuation margin
demonstrated − required CAGR
+2.6%
Required CAGR
23.4%
Demonstrated
26.0%
Terminal margin
18.4%
Exit multiple
42.8x
Company state
Terminal margin basis

Semis/optical cohort median of positive operating margins (n=22 of 25). AAOI's own FY2025 operating margin is -12.0%, so max(own, cohort median) reduces to the PRE-PROFIT branch and is named as such. Replaces a hardcoded 20.0%, which cost 2.9pp of margin. 05_Trade_Construction.md s3A.

Risk & exit

Four distinct questions, one field each. A price is not a thesis: the trigger below forces a re-underwrite and freezes further purchases — it is never an automatic sell.

Risk trigger
25% below the memo price
$66.09
Forward E[R]
vs a 0% floor
+40.7%

A daily close below $66.09 triggers a mandatory re-underwrite and freezes further purchases. It is not an automatic sell unless a separate fundamental invalidation condition has been breached.

Thesis-invalidation conditions

Fundamental and falsifiable, never price-based. If one is satisfied the thesis is marked dead and the position is retained only by explicit decision.

Impairment case

Not stated. No permanent-loss case with a named cause is on file. A valuation bear case is not an impairment case.

Documents

01 Company Research 03 Valuation 05 Trade Construction 06 Catalyst Calendar