Phase Space AI

Adobe

ADBE · investment memo

Valuation margin
demonstrated − required CAGR
+3.8%
Required CAGR
7.7%
Demonstrated
11.5%
Terminal margin
36.5%
Exit multiple
12.5x
Company state
A
Terminal margin basis

Own opex bridge to FY2031, reconciled to the dollar against EDGAR: 87.5% gross - 17.5% R&D - 26.0% S&M - 6.5% G&A - 1.0% amortisation = 36.5%. The FY2025 version of the same bridge ties exactly ($21,218m - $12,512m = $8,706m, and $12,512m equals EDGAR's OperatingExpenses tag to the dollar). Sits +0.43pp above the TTM actual 36.07% and 0.3pp below the eight-year max of 36.8% - neither a below-trailing haircut nor an above-max claim. Replaces the screen record's 21.9%, which was the audit's -14.7pp finding and the only setting that produced a FAIL.

Risk & exit

Four distinct questions, one field each. A price is not a thesis: the trigger below forces a re-underwrite and freezes further purchases — it is never an automatic sell.

Risk trigger
14% below the memo price
$225.64
Forward E[R]
vs a 0% floor
+41.2%

A daily close below $225.64 triggers a mandatory re-underwrite and freezes further purchases. It is not an automatic sell unless a separate fundamental invalidation condition has been breached.

Thesis-invalidation conditions

Not stated. This name has no falsifiable invalidation conditions on file, so it cannot be risk-monitored. That is a gap in the research, not a clean bill of health — recorded rather than hidden.

Impairment case

Not stated. No permanent-loss case with a named cause is on file. A valuation bear case is not an impairment case.

Documents

ADBE Catalyst Calendar ADBE Financial Model Notes ADBE Research ADBE Trade Construction