Adobe [ADBE]
As of 2026-07-29. Catalyst Criteria is MEASURED. Time works for a long, so a dated event is not required to own a compounder.
No date below is invented. Estimates are derived from Adobe's own filing cadence and are marked as estimates with the derivation shown.
| Date | Event | What it tests | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-15 (passed) | CFO Dan Durn departed. Steve Day serving as interim CFO. | Recorded because it is already in effect and because Adobe entered a period of reduced disclosure (Research §4) with an interim CFO. The permanent appointment is the forward event and it is undated. | Confirmed in the Q2 FY26 release |
Adobe has reported Q3 in the second week of September and filed the 10-Q within two weeks, for each of the last three years (Q3 FY25 10-Q filed 2025-09-24 for a period ended 2025-08-29; 8-K 2025-09-11).
| Estimated date | Event | What it tests | Derivation |
|---|---|---|---|
| ~mid-Sep 2026 | Q3 FY2026 results (quarter ends ~2026-08-28) | Guided to $6.67–6.72bn, ~+11.5% — a deceleration from Q2's 12.7%. Guided non-GAAP EPS $6.05–6.10, GAAP $4.40–4.45, non-GAAP operating margin ~44.0% on ~395m diluted shares. The third consecutive test of the margin-compression trend (Research §6a) — a third decline breaks the 36% terminal-margin assumption the +9.3pp implied-path margin rests on. Also the first quarter with a full period of Semrush. | Q3 FY25 8-K 2025-09-11, 10-Q 2025-09-24. |
| ~mid-Dec 2026 | Q4 FY2026 results and FIRST FY2027 GUIDANCE | The single most important event on this calendar. The FY27 ending-ARR growth guide is the number that resolves Research §2: FY26 is guided to 10.2% including ~1.8pp of Semrush, so organic is running ~8.4%. Below ~9% total (≈7.5% organic) is the bear-side invalidation trigger. Also: whether the ARR base is revalued again (it was rebased +$460m entering FY26), and whether Digital Media subscription revenue — now only a supplemental disclosure — is still growing above 10%. | Q4 FY25 8-K 2025-12-10; FY25 10-K filed 2026-01-15. |
| ~late Mar 2027 | Q1 FY2027 results | First quarter of the new fiscal year against the new guide. Semrush anniversaries into the base from Q2 FY27, so this is the last quarter where the acquisition flatters the reported line. | Q1 FY26 10-Q filed 2026-03-25. |
| ~mid-Jun 2027 | Q2 FY2027 results | Semrush fully anniversaried — reported and organic growth converge. The ~8.4% organic ARR rate becomes visible in the headline for the first time. | Q2 FY26 8-K 2026-06-11. |
| Event | What it tests | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Permanent CFO appointment | An external hire versus confirming Steve Day. Directly relevant to the disclosure posture in Research §4 — a new CFO is the most likely occasion for either restoring segment ARR guidance or retiring more of it. | Undated. Not announced. |
| AI-first ARR being defined in a filing | Currently a press-release construct: >$500m, tripled, definition not disclosed, and "AI-first" appears zero times in the Q2 FY26 10-Q. A filing definition would convert it from a claim into a metric. | No commitment |
| AI-first ARR passing $1bn | Bull-side falsifiable test. At a tripling run-rate it arrives within ~2–3 quarters, but the base is undefined so the test is weak until the point above is met. | Disclosed in releases, no date |
| Further goodwill impairment | $14,041m of goodwill at 2026-05-29; Publishing & Advertising already written down by ~$68m in Q2. "impairment" appears 25 times in each of the last two 10-Ks. Explicitly NOT an invalidation trigger (Trade Construction §4). | Annual test, timing undisclosed |
| Adobe MAX / Summit product events | Adobe holds annual customer conferences that have historically been Firefly and GenStudio launch venues. No 2026 or 2027 date appears in any filing I read, so no date is given. | Not invented |