Phase Space AI

ADMA Biologics

ADMA · investment memo

Valuation margin
demonstrated − required CAGR
-6.5%
Required CAGR
13.3%
Demonstrated
6.8%
Terminal margin
35.0%
Exit multiple
10.5x
Company state
Terminal margin basis

Held fixed and named in ADMA_Valuation.md 5. Sits BELOW ADMA's demonstrated TTM clean operating margin of 40.6% and 2.2-2.6x every listed plasma peer (EBS 13.5%, KMDA 14.4%, Grifols 16.5%). The memo calls this 'deliberately generous' relative to peers; against ADMA's own trailing it is a 5.6pp haircut.

Risk & exit

Four distinct questions, one field each. A price is not a thesis: the trigger below forces a re-underwrite and freezes further purchases — it is never an automatic sell.

Risk trigger
12% below the memo price
$7.74
Forward E[R]
vs a 0% floor
+18.9%

A daily close below $7.74 triggers a mandatory re-underwrite and freezes further purchases. It is not an automatic sell unless a separate fundamental invalidation condition has been breached.

Thesis-invalidation conditions

Not stated. This name has no falsifiable invalidation conditions on file, so it cannot be risk-monitored. That is a gap in the research, not a clean bill of health — recorded rather than hidden.

Impairment case

Not stated. No permanent-loss case with a named cause is on file. A valuation bear case is not an impairment case.

Documents

ADMA Catalyst Calendar ADMA Financial Model Notes ADMA Research ADMA Trade Construction ADMA Valuation