Powerfleet [AIOT]
Date: 2026-07-29 · Catalyst Criteria: MEASURED — monitoring, never admission.
No date on this calendar is invented. Every dated entry traces to a specific filing, quoted below. Where a date is expected but has not been announced, it is listed as NOT ANNOUNCED rather than estimated. Per the brief, a fabricated catalyst date is worse than an absent calendar.
| Date | Event | Why it matters | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 FY2027 (Jul–Sep 2026) | South African National Treasury contract commences, ramping over 18 months | The named mechanism. $100–120m TCV over a five-year minimum ≈ 4.5–5.4% of FY2026 revenue p.a. It is the entire argument leg of the Valuation Criteria PASS WITH ARGUMENT | 8-K/Ex-99.1, 2026-06-15: "the commencement of the South African National Treasury contract in the second quarter" |
| 2026-10-01 | Annual goodwill impairment test date | $412.0m of goodwill in a single reporting unit; the Q4 FY2026 test passed only by adding a control premium to a market cap 13% below carrying value | FY2026 10-K: "We test for goodwill impairment at the reporting unit level on October 1 of each year" |
| ~February 2027 | New RMB Facilities mature ($10m + ZAR 180m revolvers; $5.0m drawn at 3/31/26) | Refinancing event on a 2.47x-levered balance sheet | FY2026 10-K: entered 2026-02-05, "will mature one year from the closing date" |
| 2026-06-30 → 2028-06-30 | $30m share repurchase authorisation in force (24 months) | 5.7% of market cap; competes directly with the $30–35m FY2027 FCF guide. Explicitly "subject to obtaining any required lender consent" | 8-K, 2026-07-01 |
| Through FY2028 | South African Treasury 18-month revenue ramp completes | Determines whether the mechanism compounds or is a one-year step | 8-K/Ex-99.1, 2026-06-15 |
| Event | Basis for expecting it | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 FY2027 results (quarter ended 2026-06-30) | Q1 FY2026 was reported 2025-08-11; Q1 FY2025 on 2024-08-22 | NOT ANNOUNCED as of 2026-07-29. Prior-year timing implies early-to-mid August 2026. No date is asserted. This is the first checkpoint on invalidation triggers 1 and 2 (AIOT_Trade_Construction.md §3) |
| Q2 FY2027 results | Q2 FY2026 reported 2025-11-10 | NOT ANNOUNCED. Historically early-to-mid November |
| Q3 FY2027 results | Q3 FY2026 reported 2026-02-09 | NOT ANNOUNCED. Historically early February |
| FY2027 results + FY2028 guidance | FY2026 reported 2026-06-15 | NOT ANNOUNCED. Historically mid-June |
| Annual meeting / proxy | DEF 14A for the prior year filed 2025-07-29 | NOT FILED as of 2026-07-29 |
| Item | Detail | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Hapoalim Facility D availability | The FY2026 10-K states Facility D was increased from $10m to $20m and was "available through June 30, 2026." That date has passed, and the 10-K — filed 2026-06-15, before it lapsed — discloses no extension. $18.4m was drawn under the Hapoalim revolvers at 3/31/26 with $11.6m of remaining capacity | UNRESOLVED. Whether the incremental $10m of capacity survived is not determinable from filings available at the memo date. Flagged, not assumed either way. Resolve at the Q1 FY2027 10-Q |
PASS. There is a dated, contracted event — the South African Treasury commencement in Q2 FY2027 — that would directly confirm or refute the implied path, plus a dated risk event (the 2026-10-01 impairment test) and a dated financing event (~February 2027). Per the Criteria, a dated event is not required to own a long; here there is one anyway, and it maps one-to-one onto the argument that carries the Valuation Criteria.
The nearest checkpoint is the unannounced Q1 FY2027 print in roughly two weeks. It is the first observation of same-perimeter growth and first-half free cash flow, which are invalidation triggers 1 and 2. Any entry decision that can wait, should.