AMAT · investment memo
Own FY2021-FY2025 median operating margin, one complete WFE cycle. Opex bridge 48.7% gross - 12.6% RD&E - 6.2% SG&A - 0.6% restructuring = 29.2% EBIT, from the FY2025 10-K segment note (R83). Equals the FY2025 reported consolidated operating margin, so no haircut applied. UNIT: percent (the sibling key terminal_margin carries the same figure as a fraction, 0.292).
Four distinct questions, one field each. A price is not a thesis: the trigger below forces a re-underwrite and freezes further purchases — it is never an automatic sell.
A daily close below $330.01 triggers a mandatory re-underwrite and freezes further purchases. It is not an automatic sell unless a separate fundamental invalidation condition has been breached.
Not stated. This name has no falsifiable invalidation conditions on file, so it cannot be risk-monitored. That is a gap in the research, not a clean bill of health — recorded rather than hidden.
Named cause: China export controls plus the DRAM share slide. China is $8.53bn (30.1%) of FY2025 revenue, and AMAT is the name with the broadest exposure to Chinese trailing-edge capacity — the segment most directly in the path of further US export restrictions and of Chinese domestic-equipment substitution, which is a structural rather than cyclical loss. Note the tell already in the filings: DRAM fell from 28% to 26% of Semiconductor Systems revenue in FY2025, *during* the memory boom. AMAT is the least memory-levered of the three (memory ~24% of total revenue), so if foundry/logic capex dig