Phase Space AI

Catalyst Calendar

Applied Materials [AMAT]

Applied Materials [AMAT] — Catalyst Calendar

As of 2026-07-29 · framework v1.5.1 · Catalyst Criteria type: MEASURED

Rule observed: no catalyst date is fabricated. Where a date is not company-confirmed it is marked ESTIMATED with the basis for the estimate, and where it is unknown it is left absent. A fabricated catalyst date is worse than an absent calendar.

Date Event Status What it tests
~mid-Aug 2026 Q3 FY2026 results (quarter ending ~2026-07-26) ESTIMATED from the historical mid-August cadence; the Q2 FY2026 10-Q was filed 2026-05-21 Consensus is $9,007m revenue / $3.3887 EPS (n=29), revised up from $2.8739 ninety days ago (+17.9%). Tests the largest upward revision in the cluster
~Dec 2026 FY2026 10-K filing ESTIMATED — the FY2025 10-K was filed 2025-12-12; FY2026 ends ~2026-10-25 FY2026 China revenue share (the 30.1% → ? test), contract liabilities, AGS gross margin, and the DRAM/NAND share of Semiconductor Systems
~late Nov 2026 Q4 / FY2026 results ESTIMATED from historical cadence FY2027 guidance, against a consensus that already embeds $42.9bn revenue and $16.90 EPS
Reported Q2 FY2026 results (quarter ended 2026-04-26) ALREADY REPORTED — revenue $7,910m, 49.9% gross margin, 31.9% operating margin DSO improved to 73.5 days; the cluster's best accounting-quality datum

No Investor Day or product-launch date is asserted — none confirmed from a company source in this run.

What each catalyst would confirm or refute

The Catalyst Criteria exists to date events that would move the implied path, not merely the price. For this name the implied path fails by 25.6pp, and the required revenue CAGR is 37.0%. The events that matter are therefore the ones that speak to backlog coverage and cycle position, not to the next quarter's revenue beat:

  1. The next annual backlog disclosure — contract liabilities in the FY2026 10-K; note AMAT publishes no RPO, so this is the only backlog datum available. This is the highest-information event on the calendar and it is annual, not quarterly.
  2. The next geographic note — China share, same filing.
  3. Quarterly DSO — available from each 10-Q, and the decisive test for LRCX specifically.

Non-company-specific dated risks