AMD · investment memo
own opex bridge: 52.0 gross - 18.0 R&D - 8.0 SG&A - 2.0 residual amortisation/other = 24.0. Gross set at 52.0% BELOW the company's own 55-58% non-GAAP FAD target range on the disclosed MI450 mix dilution. Constraint m_EBIT,T 24.0 <= m_gross,T 52.0 satisfied, 28.0pp headroom. 11-13pp below what AMD's own EPS >$20 target implies (~35-37% non-GAAP). v1 carried 18.0%.
Four distinct questions, one field each. A price is not a thesis: the trigger below forces a re-underwrite and freezes further purchases — it is never an automatic sell.
A daily close below $340.91 triggers a mandatory re-underwrite and freezes further purchases. It is not an automatic sell unless a separate fundamental invalidation condition has been breached.
Not stated. This name has no falsifiable invalidation conditions on file, so it cannot be risk-monitored. That is a gap in the research, not a clean bill of health — recorded rather than hidden.
Scenario: the MI450 ramp slips or the OpenAI and Meta deployments land materially below "up to 6 gigawatts", while enough warrant tranches vest to dilute anyway. The specific mechanism. Neither agreement carries a firm purchase commitment; AMD's own 10-K says customers *"may cancel orders for standard products more than 30 days prior to shipment without incurring significant fees"* and RPO is $264m. "Up to 6 gigawatts" is an aspiration with a warrant schedule attached. If OpenAI's or Meta's capital plans change — funding, model architecture, a better Nvidia part, or their own silicon — the vol