Phase Space AI

Catalyst Calendar

Advanced Micro Devices [AMD]

Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. [AMD] — Catalyst Calendar

As of 2026-07-29. Dates the company or a filing has confirmed are marked CONFIRMED. Dates inferred from AMD's own filing history are marked ESTIMATED with the inference stated. Nothing here is invented.

AMD uses a 52/53-week fiscal year ending the last Saturday in December. FY2026 ends 2026-12-26.

Dated events

Date Event Status Why it matters
~2026-06-27 Q2 FY2026 fiscal quarter end ESTIMATED (52-week convention from 2026-03-28) The quarter against which the $11.2bn ±$0.3bn guide is measured.
~2026-08-04 (±5d) Q2 FY2026 results and Q3 guide ESTIMATED AMD reported Q2 on 2025-08-05 and 2024-07-30. Watch: Data Center revenue and Data Center operating margin (21.7% FY2025 vs 27.7% Q1 FY26 — this print decides which is the trend), MI450 ramp commentary, and any warrant-vesting disclosure.
~2026-08-06 (±5d) Q2 FY2026 Form 10-Q ESTIMATED Filed 1–2 days after results in each of the last four quarters. Carries the warrant note, RPO, and the concentration disclosure the release omits.
~2026-11-03 (±5d) Q3 FY2026 results ESTIMATED Reported 2025-11-04 and 2024-10-29.
~2026-02-02 (±7d) Q4 and FY2026 results ESTIMATED Reported 2026-02-03 and 2025-02-04. Full-year customer-concentration disclosure follows in the 10-K.
~2026-02-04 (±7d) FY2026 Form 10-K ESTIMATED Filed 2026-02-04 and 2025-02-05 (FY2025 and FY2024). The only place the ≥10%-customer test is disclosed.
2030-10-05 OpenAI warrant expiry CONFIRMED — 10-Q Note 12 Outer bound on 160m shares of contingent dilution.
2031-02-23 Meta warrant expiry CONFIRMED — 10-Q Note 12 Outer bound on the second 160m shares.
2027-01-15 Recommended option expiry (if any position taken) — 171 days; brackets two earnings prints.

Product-cycle events — named in filings, dates not disclosed

AMD names its roadmap densely and calendars almost none of it. Listed so the named products are not mistaken for dated catalysts.

Product / event Filing evidence Date
Instinct MI350 / MI355X Shipping. FY2025 10-K: hyperscalers, OEMs and ODMs "deployed our AMD Instinct MI350X Series GPUs." MLPerf results cited in the Q1 FY26 release. shipping now
Instinct MI450 series The first gigawatt of both the OpenAI and Meta deployments. Q1 FY26 release: "customer engagements for MI450 Series and Helios strengthening; customer forecasts exceeding initial expectations." ramp expected FY2026; no date disclosed
Helios rack-scale platform "HPE announced it will be one of the first system providers to adopt the AMD Helios rack-scale platform and deliver the Herder supercomputer powered by next-gen AMD Instinct MI430X GPUs and EPYC 'Venice' CPUs." no date disclosed
Instinct MI430X / MI440X / MI455X MI440X announced for enterprise AI (Q4 FY25 release). Samsung supplying HBM4 for MI455X. no dates disclosed
6th Gen EPYC "Venice" / "Verano" Meta named as "a lead customer." no date disclosed
OpenAI 6 GW deployment Product purchase agreement, October 2025. Multi-year. no delivery schedule disclosed
Meta up-to-6 GW deployment Master purchase agreement amended February 2026. no delivery schedule disclosed

The critical caveat on the two headline agreements. Neither is a dated, committed catalyst. AMD's RevenueRemainingPerformanceObligation at 2026-03-28 was $264m — 0.7% of TTM revenue — and the 10-K states customers "may cancel orders for standard products more than 30 days prior to shipment without incurring significant fees." "Up to 6 gigawatts" is an announcement. Treating it as a scheduled revenue event would be exactly the fabrication the brief forbids.

The monitoring metrics, and they are not dates

Two disclosed lines carry more information than any date on this calendar:

  1. Diluted weighted-average shares. Q1 FY26 was 1,650m against 1,630m outstanding — ordinary RSU dilution, zero warrant effect, because no tranche has vested. The first quarter in which this line jumps materially is the quarter the 320m warrant shares begin converting from contingent to real.
  2. Data Center segment operating margin. FY2024 27.7% → FY2025 21.7% → Q1 FY26 27.7%. Whether the AI ramp is structurally margin-dilutive at AMD is decided in the next two prints, and the answer moves the terminal-margin input directly.

Per criteria.md, Catalyst Criteria is MEASURED and blocks nothing.

Regulatory — the one genuinely dated risk

US export controls on advanced computing to China materially affect AMD, and unlike Broadcom AMD quantifies the exposure:

This is a live, unscheduled policy risk with a demonstrated eight-figure-to-nine-figure quarterly P&L sensitivity, and it is one of the few places AMD's disclosure is more informative than Broadcom's.