Phase Space AI

AST SpaceMobile

ASTS · investment memo

Valuation margin
demonstrated − required CAGR
Required CAGR
Demonstrated
Terminal margin
Exit multiple
Company state
D
Terminal margin basis

UNIDENTIFIED, declared by the memo. The screen's 14.1% was an 'industry median of mature profitable peers' applied to a company with no product revenue - the ADMA/INOD construction - and is rejected. No terminal margin is asserted; a 5%-30% grid is run instead.

Risk & exit

Four distinct questions, one field each. A price is not a thesis: the trigger below forces a re-underwrite and freezes further purchases — it is never an automatic sell.

Risk trigger
25% below the memo price
$39.77

A daily close below $39.77 triggers a mandatory re-underwrite and freezes further purchases. It is not an automatic sell unless a separate fundamental invalidation condition has been breached.

Thesis-invalidation conditions

Not stated. This name has no falsifiable invalidation conditions on file, so it cannot be risk-monitored. That is a gap in the research, not a clean bill of health — recorded rather than hidden.

Impairment case

Named cause: a financing gap at a moment when the equity cannot absorb it. ASTS_Trade_Construction.md §4. This is the one name in the cluster where a going-concern case must be argued explicitly, and it is.

Documents

ASTS Catalyst Calendar ASTS Financial Model Notes ASTS Research ASTS Trade Construction ASTS Valuation