AST SpaceMobile [ASTS]
as of 2026-07-29 · Catalyst Criteria: MEASURED — blocks nothing, informs monitoring
No date here is invented. Where ASTS has not announced a date, the entry says so and gives the prior-year analogue from the filing record, labelled as an analogue. A fabricated catalyst date is worse than an absent calendar.
This is the best-dated of the three names in the cluster — and every hard date is a financing or regulatory event, not a product event. That asymmetry is itself the finding.
| Date | Event | Source | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-05 | Sound Point Credit Facility availability period expires. $550.0m non-recourse delayed-draw term loan to SpectrumCo at SOFR + 8.00%. Undrawn. Extendable 180 days on payment of a further 1% of the loan amount ($5.5m) | Q1-2026 10-Q, Sound Point Credit Agreement | The single hardest date on this name. Drawing requires "receipt of all required regulatory and FCC approvals relating to the Spectrum Usage Rights Transaction" and confirmation of the Ligado bankruptcy events. Either the Ligado approvals land by then, or ASTS pays $5.5m to extend, or a $550m committed facility lapses. A 2% commitment fee has already been paid and a 0.15% monthly ticking fee accrues meanwhile |
| after the quarter ended 2026-06-30 | Conversion-condition testing begins for the 2036 2.25% Convertible Notes ($1,075.0m). Convertible in any quarter in which the Class A price exceeds 130% of the $116.30 conversion price ($151.19) for 20 of 30 consecutive trading days | 10-Q, note terms | Spot is $53.03. The condition will not be met, so no conversion pressure — but the test is now live each quarter and is worth tracking as a marker of where the stock would need to be |
| 2028-10-31 | UBS Bridge Financing Loan matures ($420.0m, SOFR + 2.00%, borrower BackstopCo, non-recourse) | 10-Q | Requires 102% cash collateral maintained at all times — the $428.4m of restricted cash on the balance sheet. That cash is not available for the programme |
| 2029-03-06 / 2029-10-22 | Earliest optional redemption dates for the 2032 4.25% and 2036 2.00% notes respectively, subject to a liquidity condition and a 130%-of-conversion-price test | 10-Q | Long-dated; noted for completeness |
| 2032-03-01 · 2032-10-15 · 2036-01-15 · 2036-04-15 · 2034 | Maturities of the 2032 4.25%, 2032 2.375%, 2036 2.00%, 2036 2.25% and 2034 1.625% notes | 10-Q; 8-K 2026-07-20 | No maturity wall inside five years — the earliest is 2032. This is a genuine strength and should be weighed against §4 of ASTS_Trade_Construction.md |
| Item | Status | What resolves it |
|---|---|---|
| The Ligado Spectrum Usage Rights Transaction | Bankruptcy Court approved the transactions 2025-06-23 and confirmed Ligado's Chapter 11 plan on or about 2025-09-29. Closing remains "subject to receipt of satisfactory regulatory approvals required for the proposed use of the spectrum, as well as other closing conditions." No date is disclosed and none is asserted here | FCC and other regulatory approvals. On closing: the remaining $15m + $15m of the $550m consideration falls due, and the Sound Point facility becomes drawable. If approvals are NOT obtained, the $520m Backstop Commitment — memorialised in an amendment to Ligado's DIP financing and approved by the Court — becomes drawable by Ligado solely to refund ASTS for the $520m already paid |
| The $100m escrowed payment | Paid on or about 2026-03-31 for the benefit of Inmarsat; placed in escrow by Bankruptcy Court order dated 2026-04-02; distribution "subject to further order of the Bankruptcy Court" | A further court order |
| L-band Annual Payment | Obligation began 2025-06-23; at least $80.0m per year. Together with the Crown Castle Annual Payment, ~$85.4m was payable in Class A stock at ASTS's option as at 2026-03-31 | Recurs annually regardless of service launch |
| Verizon $45.0m commercial prepayment | MOU 2024-05-23 → definitive agreement 2025-10-08 → regulatory approvals received 2026-04-22 → "As of the date of this Quarterly Report, the $45.0 million commercial payment is due from Verizon." | Receipt. A concrete, near-term cash inflow that has not yet been reported as received |
| Block 2 BB7 satellite write-off | Pre-announced in the 10-Q's forward-looking discussion as a driver of future results differing from historical results | The next earnings release. R&D is already described as covering Block 2 satellites "beyond BB7" |
| Date | Event | Source |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-11 / 02-13 | Four 424B5 prospectus supplements | 424B5 filings |
| Feb 2026 | $1,075.0m of 2036 2.25% convertible notes issued, net $1,057.5m | 10-Q |
| 2026-02-20 / 02-23 | $296.5m of face repurchased across the 2032 4.25% and 2032 2.375% notes for ~$614.2m, funded by issuing 6,337,964 Class A shares to the same holders | 10-Q |
| 2026-03-11 | Prosperity term loan and capital equipment loan repaid (~$16.3m combined) | 10-Q |
| 2026-03-17 | October 2025 ATM programme terminated, "having utilized virtually the entire capacity" of its $800.0m | 10-Q |
| 2026-04-06 | Private placement warrants expired; final 122,000 exercised for 109,499 Class A shares | 10-Q |
| 2026-04-22 | Certain regulatory approvals received for the SpaceMobile Service | 10-Q |
| 2026-05-11 | Q1-2026 results 8-K and 10-Q — the source of every verified figure in this memo | 8-K and 10-Q, 2026-05-11 |
| 2026-06-12 | Annual meeting (Item 5.07) | 8-K 2026-06-15 |
| 2026-07-15 | 8-K, Item 2.02: preliminary cash and restricted cash of ~$2,723m at 2026-06-30 — implying ~$736m of consumption in the quarter. Simultaneously announced a proposed convertible offering | 8-K 2026-07-15 |
| 2026-07-20 | 8-K, Items 1.01/2.03/3.02: $1.0bn of 1.625% Convertible Senior Notes due 2034 priced and closed. Net proceeds $983.6m, of which $96.9m paid for capped calls. Conversion price $79.57; effective conversion price $149.20 with the capped call | 8-K 2026-07-20 |
The screen record is dated 2026-07-28 and contains neither of the last two. It is 13 days behind a $1bn financing and a disclosure of $736m of quarterly cash consumption.
| Expected window | Event | Prior-year analogue (fact) | What to read |
|---|---|---|---|
| early-to-mid August 2026 | Q2-2026 results and 10-Q. Not yet reported — the 8-K of 2026-07-15 states explicitly that "The Company's financial results as of and for the quarter ended June 30, 2026 are not yet complete and will not be available until after the completion of this offering" | Q2-2025: 8-K and 10-Q both 2025-08-11. Q3-2025: both 2025-11-10. Q1-2026: both 2026-05-11 | Five things: (1) confirmation of the ~$736m quarterly consumption and its split between capex and opex; (2) any SpaceMobile Service revenue — the first dollar is the single most important disclosure this company can make; (3) the Block 2 BB7 write-off quantified; (4) gateway product revenue and its gross margin — Q1-2026 was 17.2%; (5) whether the Verizon $45m has been received |
| November 2026 | Q3-2026 results | Q3-2025: 2025-11-10 | First full quarter after the July financing |
| ~March 2027 | FY2026 results and 10-K | FY2025: 8-K and 10-K both 2026-03-02; FY2024 10-K 2025-03-03 | Full-year capex against the $21–23m-per-satellite estimate — the number the entire "fully funded" claim rests on |
ASTS's past technical milestones are dated and impressive (five Block 1 satellites launched 2024-09-12; first video call from space with Vodafone January 2025; AT&T and Verizon voice/video February 2025; Rakuten two-way broadband April 2025; first-ever VoLTE call and SMS over satellite on AT&T spectrum 2025-07-21; Bell Canada 4G VoLTE 2025-10-02; satellite-to-satellite cell handover validated). Its future ones are not dated at all.
"The timing of launch of the Block 2 BB satellites is contingent on a number of factors including satisfactory and timely completion of the assembly and testing of the Block 2 BB satellites, readiness of the launch vehicle, logistics and other factors, many of which are beyond our control." — Q1-2026 10-Q
No Block 2 launch date, no commercial-service launch date, and no coverage-milestone date is disclosed, so none is asserted here. The targets that are disclosed are quantities, not dates: 25 satellites for the most commercially attractive MNO markets, 45–60 for continuous coverage of the US, Europe and Japan, ~90 for worldwide strategic markets.
Catalyst Criteria assessment: PASS on availability, with the composition flagged. There is one hard contractual
date (2026-10-05, Sound Point expiry), one live quarterly test (the 2036 2.25% conversion condition), one
imminent print (Q2-2026, early-to-mid August), one concrete pending inflow (Verizon $45m), and one large
undated binary (Ligado). Not one of them is a launch, a coverage milestone or a service-revenue date — because
none is disclosed. Per criteria.md time works for a long, so a dated event is not required to own this; but a book
should understand that the dateable catalysts on ASTS are all about money, and the ones about satellites are
not dateable.