Phase Space AI

Broadcom

AVGO · investment memo

Valuation margin
demonstrated − required CAGR
+1.6%
Required CAGR
24.8%
Demonstrated
26.4%
Terminal margin
47.0%
Exit multiple
24.2x
Company state
A
Terminal margin basis

own opex bridge: 63.0 gross (85% semis at 62.0 / 15% software at 90.0) - 11.5 R&D - 3.5 SG&A - 1.0 residual acquisition-intangible amortisation. Full bridge retained in terminal_margin.bridge.

Risk & exit

Four distinct questions, one field each. A price is not a thesis: the trigger below forces a re-underwrite and freezes further purchases — it is never an automatic sell.

Risk trigger
12% below the memo price
$333.26
Forward E[R]
vs a 0% floor
+60.1%

A daily close below $333.26 triggers a mandatory re-underwrite and freezes further purchases. It is not an automatic sell unless a separate fundamental invalidation condition has been breached.

Thesis-invalidation conditions

Not stated. This name has no falsifiable invalidation conditions on file, so it cannot be risk-monitored. That is a gap in the research, not a clean bill of health — recorded rather than hidden.

Impairment case

Scenario: a hyperscaler custom-XPU programme is cancelled, delayed, or in-sourced, and the committed RPO proves collectible in cash but not in continuing revenue. The specific mechanism. Broadcom's AI revenue is concentrated in a handful of custom accelerator programmes. The 42%-of-revenue distributor and 44%-of-AR single counterparty say the exposure is already balance-sheet-visible. If one of the two or three largest programmes is paused — because the customer's own model roadmap changes, because it moves to a merchant GPU, or because it brings design in-house — AI revenue does not decline g

Documents

AVGO Catalyst Calendar AVGO Financial Model Notes AVGO Research AVGO Trade Construction AVGO Valuation