Phase Space AI

Financial Model Notes

Broadcom [AVGO]

Broadcom Inc. [AVGO] — Financial Model Notes

Every number used in AVGO_Research.md and AVGO_Valuation.md, with its derivation. A figure that was computed rather than read off a filing is marked derived and the arithmetic is shown.


1. Quarterly revenue reconstruction

Broadcom files no Q4 10-Q, so Q4 revenue is derived as the fiscal-year total less the three reported quarters. Each derivation is then cross-checked against the Q4 earnings release.

Fiscal quarter Period end Revenue ($m) Source
Q1 FY2024 2024-02-04 11,961 10-Q
Q2 FY2024 2024-05-05 12,487 10-Q
Q3 FY2024 2024-08-04 13,072 10-Q
Q4 FY2024 2024-11-03 14,054 derived: 51,574 − 11,961 − 12,487 − 13,072
Q1 FY2025 2025-02-02 14,916 10-Q
Q2 FY2025 2025-05-04 15,004 10-Q
Q3 FY2025 2025-08-03 15,952 10-Q
Q4 FY2025 2025-11-02 18,015 derived: 63,887 − 14,916 − 15,004 − 15,952. Cross-check: Q4 release states "record revenue of $18.0 billion"
Q1 FY2026 2026-02-01 19,311 10-Q
Q2 FY2026 2026-05-03 22,187 10-Q

TTM revenue (Q3 FY25 → Q2 FY26) = 15,952 + 18,015 + 19,311 + 22,187 = $75,465m. Matches scan_v3.

Prior-year TTM (Q3 FY24 → Q2 FY25) = 13,072 + 14,054 + 14,916 + 15,004 = $57,046m.

TTM YoY growth = 75,465 / 57,046 − 1 = +32.3%.

Q-annualised run-rate = 22,187 × 4 = $88,748m (+17.6% on TTM).


2. Operating income reconstruction

Fiscal quarter EBIT ($m) Source
Q1 FY2025 6,260 10-Q
Q2 FY2025 5,829 10-Q
Q3 FY2025 5,887 10-Q
Q4 FY2025 7,508 derived: FY2025 OperatingIncomeLoss 25,484 − 6,260 − 5,829 − 5,887
Q1 FY2026 8,563 10-Q
Q2 FY2026 10,788 10-Q

TTM EBIT = 5,887 + 7,508 + 8,563 + 10,788 = $32,746m. TTM operating margin = 32,746 / 75,465 = 43.4%. Latest-quarter operating margin = 10,788 / 22,187 = 48.6%. FY2025 operating margin = 25,484 / 63,887 = 39.9% (the figure scan_v3 used; correct for its period, stale as a terminal-margin input).

Gross profit: Q3 FY25 10,703; Q4 FY25 derived as 43,294 − 10,145 − 10,197 − 10,703 = 12,249; Q1 FY26 13,157; Q2 FY26 15,415. TTM gross profit $51,524m → TTM gross margin 68.3%. Latest quarter 15,415 / 22,187 = 69.5%.


3. Net cash / net debt

At 2026-05-03 (all from the Q2 FY2026 10-Q balance sheet unless noted):

Component $m
Cash and cash equivalents 19,628
— of which time deposits 4,003
— of which money-market funds 2,801
— of which US Treasury bills (at fair value) 2,985
Short-term investments none tagged; Broadcom reports no separate line
LongTermDebtNoncurrent (62,655)
LongTermDebtCurrent (2,252)
LongTermDebt (total, tagged) (64,907) — ties to 62,655 + 2,252 ✓
Net financial debt (45,279)

Leases, both stale relative to the debt date: finance lease $7m noncurrent + $3m current @2025-08-03; operating lease $1,181m noncurrent + $144m current @2025-11-02. Including all of them gives −$46,614m.

scan_v3 reported −$46,470m, reproducible as 19,628 − 62,655 − 2,252 − 7 − 3 − 1,181 = −46,470 — i.e. it included operating-lease noncurrent but omitted operating-lease current ($144m), and mixed three balance-sheet dates. Variance to the financial-debt basis used here: $1,191m, or 0.06% of enterprise value. Immaterial for AVGO; the same construction is not immaterial on a small cap.

EV = 4,757.6m × $380.46 + $45,279m = $1,810,069m + $45,279m = $1,855,348m.

ConvertibleDebtNoncurrent: not present in Broadcom's XBRL. No convertible overhang.


4. Share count and EPS cross-check

Measure Value Source
Common shares outstanding 4,758m @2026-05-03 10-Q (CommonStockSharesOutstanding)
Scan value 4,757,580,198 scan_v3agrees
Diluted WA shares, Q2 FY26 4,876m 10-Q
Q2 FY26 GAAP net income $9,310m earnings release and 10-Q
9,310 / 4,876 $1.9093
Filed diluted EPS $1.91 ✓ scale confirmed

Not dual-class. No customer warrants, no convertible preferred, no contingent share issuance — so as-reported and fully diluted are the same number. This is the material contrast with AMD (320m warrant shares at $0.01) and MRVL (21.8m as-converted preferred).


5. AI revenue series

Not an XBRL tag. Sourced from the quarterly earnings releases (8-K Item 2.02, EX-99.1), which state AI semiconductor revenue in the CEO quotation each quarter.

Quarter AI semis ($bn) Disclosure
FY2024 (full year) 12.2 "AI revenue of $12.2 billion … grew 220 percent year-on-year"
Q1 FY2025 4.1 "Q1 AI revenue grew 77% year-over-year to $4.1 billion"
Q2 FY2025 4.4 "Q2 AI revenue grew 46% year-over-year to over $4.4 billion"
Q3 FY2025 5.2 "Q3 AI revenue growth accelerated to 63% year-over-year to $5.2 billion"
Q4 FY2025 ~6.2 guided in the Q3 release; Q4 release confirms +74% YoY without restating the level
Q1 FY2026 8.4 "Q1 AI revenue of $8.4 billion grew 106% year-over-year"
Q2 FY2026 10.8 "Q2 semiconductor revenue from AI of $10.8 billion grew 143% year-over-year"
Q3 FY2026 16.0 (guide) "we expect semiconductor revenue from AI to grow over 200 percent year-over-year to $16.0 billion"

Internal consistency check. Back-solving prior-year quarters from the stated growth rates: Q1 FY24 = 4.1/1.77 = 2.32; Q2 FY24 = 4.4/1.46 = 3.01; Q3 FY24 = 5.2/1.63 = 3.19; Q4 FY24 = 6.2/1.74 = 3.56. Sum 12.08 against the disclosed FY2024 total of 12.2 — a 1.0% reconciliation gap across four independently stated growth rates. The series is internally consistent.

TTM AI (Q3 FY25 → Q2 FY26) = 5.2 + 6.2 + 8.4 + 10.8 = $30.6bn = 40.5% of TTM revenue. Prior-year TTM AI = 3.19 + 3.56 + 4.1 + 4.4 = $15.25bn. AI contribution to TTM growth = (30.6 − 15.25) / (75.465 − 57.046) = 15.35 / 18.419 = 83.3%.

Ex-AI: (75.465 − 30.6) / (57.046 − 15.25) − 1 = 44.865 / 41.796 − 1 = +7.3%.


6. Segment series (fully sourced, no derivation)

Quarter Semi solutions Infra software
Q1 FY25 8,212 6,704
Q2 FY25 8,408 6,596
Q3 FY25 9,166 6,786
Q4 FY25 11,072 6,943
Q1 FY26 12,515 6,796
Q2 FY26 15,009 7,178

TTM semis $47,762m; TTM infra software $27,703m; sum $75,465m ✓ ties to TTM revenue.

Annual: FY2023 28,182 / 7,637 / 35,819 · FY2024 30,096 / 21,478 / 51,574 · FY2025 36,858 / 27,029 / 63,887. All from the 10-K and the Q4 earnings releases.

Organic semiconductor CAGR, FY2023 (2023-10-29) → TTM (2026-05-03), 2.51 years: (47,762 / 28,182)^(1/2.51) − 1 = 21.7%.


7. Corrected trailing CAGR

scan_v3 base: cagr_base_revenue = $33,203m = FY2022 revenue, period ended 2022-10-30 (10-K). Endpoint: TTM revenue $75,465m at 2026-05-03. Interval 1,281 days = 3.5075 years.

(75,465 / 33,203)^(1 / 3.5075) − 1 = 26.4%

scan_v3 reports 24.378426% — bit-identical to scan_v2, whose TTM endpoint was $72,454m. The CAGR was not recomputed when TTM revenue was corrected. Same fingerprint on AMD and MRVL.


8. Own-multiple history construction

Daily EV/Sales, 2022-03-10 → 2026-07-28, 1,099 trading days. Price from Alpaca daily bars (split adjusted). TTM revenue as known at each date, lagged to the actual 10-Q/10-K filing date so the series is not forward-looking. Current share count and net debt held constant, so the series measures multiple movement rather than capital-structure change.

min p25 median p75 p90 max current percentile
EV/Sales 7.84 11.37 17.53 22.99 27.12 34.24 24.59 80.3

Known limitation, stated rather than hidden: shares rose ~4.1bn → 4.76bn and net debt ~$28bn → $45bn across the window on the VMware financing. Holding today's capital structure constant therefore inflates the earlier part of the series, which makes today's 80.3rd-percentile reading conservative (the true historical multiples were lower, so today would rank higher).

EV/EBIT history spans only 151 trading days — a continuous four-quarter EBIT series does not exist before the Q1 FY25 filing. Declared UNIDENTIFIED as a valuation anchor per valuation.md rather than substituting a peer median.


9. Reverse-DCF parameterisation

assets/reverse_dcf.py, EBIT basis. Solved: revenue CAGR. Fixed: EV $1,855,348m; revenue $75,465m; 5 years; WACC 10.0%; terminal margin 40.0%; exit multiple 24.2x.

Result 32.5%, implying FY2031 revenue of $308,685m. Full sensitivity in AVGO_Valuation.md.

Terminal value is 100% of modelled EV under this construction (the model discounts only a terminal value), well above the 60% threshold, so the reverse DCF is the primary long-horizon output and the sensitivity is run over the exit multiple — never over scenario probabilities.


10. Data-quality flags carried forward

  1. revenue_cagr_demonstrated is stale in scan_v3 for all three cluster names — carried over from scan_v2 after the TTM endpoint was corrected. Understates AVGO by 2.0pp, AMD by 1.7pp, MRVL by 1.2pp.
  2. terminal_margin capped at 15.6% for AVGO (from 39.9%) and MRVL (from 16.1%) on an industry percentile. Sole cause of "reverse DCF unsolvable in range" and the INDETERMINATE verdicts.
  3. margin_period is the prior fiscal year on all three, so gross and operating margins are one to three quarters stale. AVGO's operating margin is understated by 3.5pp on a TTM basis and 8.7pp on the latest quarter.
  4. entity_public_float values are stale 10-K cover-page dollar amounts, not current floats.
  5. The net-cash builder mixes balance-sheet dates and treats operating-lease current/noncurrent asymmetrically.