Phase Space AI

Bloom Energy

BE · investment memo

Valuation margin
demonstrated − required CAGR
-8.2%
Required CAGR
41.3%
Demonstrated
33.1%
Terminal margin
13.7%
Exit multiple
33.2x
Company state
Terminal margin basis

max(own TTM operating margin 11.32%, growth-matched peer median 13.7%). NOT an opex bridge - no terminal gross margin is built, so the m_EBIT,T <= m_gross,T constraint is checked against the TTM gross margin instead.

Risk & exit

Four distinct questions, one field each. A price is not a thesis: the trigger below forces a re-underwrite and freezes further purchases — it is never an automatic sell.

Risk trigger
25% below the memo price
$125.28

A daily close below $125.28 triggers a mandatory re-underwrite and freezes further purchases. It is not an automatic sell unless a separate fundamental invalidation condition has been breached.

Thesis-invalidation conditions

Not stated. This name has no falsifiable invalidation conditions on file, so it cannot be risk-monitored. That is a gap in the research, not a clean bill of health — recorded rather than hidden.

Impairment case

This is logged and scored, and it does not reject the name. Inverse-volatility sizing is the active protection: BE's realised volatility is 111.4% and its beta 3.14 (Blume-adjusted), so a volatility-scaled book sizes it down automatically. ---

Documents

Bloom Energy Catalyst Calendar 2026-07-28 Bloom Energy Criteria and Valuation 2026-07-29 Bloom Energy Research 2026-07-28 Bloom Energy Trade Construction 2026-07-28 Bloom Energy Valuation 2026-07-28