Phase Space AI

Catalyst Calendar

BILL Holdings [BILL]

BILL Holdings [BILL] — Catalyst Calendar

As of 2026-07-29 · Catalyst Criteria: MEASURED

Rule applied here: no date is invented. Where BILL has not announced a date, this document gives the observed filing dates of the equivalent event in prior years and labels the expectation as an inference. A fabricated catalyst date is worse than an absent calendar.

1. Dated and confirmed

Date Event Source Why it matters
2026-06-30 CTO Ken Moss and EVP/GM Payments & Financial Services Mary Kay Bowman depart (advisory through 2027-06-30). President/COO John Rettig becomes Chief Strategy and Transformation Officer, effective immediately from 2026-05-26. 8-K filed 2026-05-26, Items 5.02 / 7.01 The GM of Payments leaving a business that is 72.7% payments revenue. Already occurred.
2026-05-26 FY2026 Q4 and full-year guidance reaffirmed Same 8-K, Item 7.01 Total revenue $1,642–1,652m; core $1,496.3–1,506.3m; non-GAAP operating income $303.6–308.6m.
2026-05-07 $1.0bn share repurchase authorisation, 24-month term, funded from existing cash 8-K / EX-99.1 21.7% of the current market capitalisation. ~4pp of the 12-month target.
2026-06-30 FY2026 fiscal year end — Results not yet filed.
2027-01-15 Expiry of the Jan-2027 option chain used in BILL_Trade_Construction.md Alpaca chain Captures two of the next three earnings prints.
2027-04-01 $123.548m of 2027 Notes mature (0%) Debt note, Q3 FY26 10-Q Trivially covered by $2,173m of corporate liquid assets.
2030-04-01 $1,400.0m of 2030 Notes mature (0%, conversion price $119.45) Debt note Conversion price is 158% above spot. No equity dilution path at current prices.

2. Expected but NOT announced — inference stated as inference

Event Expected Basis for the expectation Materiality
Q4 / FY2026 results + first FY2027 guidance Late August 2026 BILL filed its FY 10-K on 2025-08-28, 2024-08-23 and 2023-08-29, with the results 8-K one day prior in each case (2025-08-27, 2024-08-22). No date announced. The single largest catalyst. First guide to set a float assumption into a cutting cycle, and the first core-growth guide off a customer base that declined sequentially. Also the annual disclosure point for net dollar-based retention (94% / 92% / 111%) and businesses using our solutions.
FY2026 10-K Late August 2026 Same three-year pattern Carries the NDR figure, the logo-retention figure and the FY2026 subscription/transaction split.
Q1 FY2027 results Early November 2026 Prior Q1 releases: 2025-11-06, 2024-11-07, 2023-11-02. Not announced. First quarter of the FY27 guide; first full quarter after the CTO/Payments-GM departures.
Q2 FY2027 results Early February 2027 Prior Q2 releases: 2026-02-05, 2025-02-06, 2024-02-08. Not announced. Falls after the 2027-01-15 option expiry.
Annual meeting / proxy Late October 2026 DEF 14A filed 2025-10-27, 2024-10-25, 2023-10-26. Not announced. The venue for any continuation of the proxy contest evidenced by the 2025-09-08 DFAN14A.

3. Continuous / undated

Driver Mechanics Quantified
Federal Reserve policy Float revenue is interest earned on ~$3,999m of funds held for customers. Realised yield ~3.7% TTM. ~$40m of revenue per 100bp, ≈ 2.5% of total revenue. Float is already −10.0% year-over-year and −6.6% in the latest quarter.
Take-rate progression Transaction fees ÷ TPV: 28.2bp (Dec-23) → 33.3bp (Mar-26). The entire growth mechanism. Reported every quarter; derivable from the release.
Buyback execution $272.7m repurchased in 9M FY2026; ~1.0m shares for ~$52m in Q3 FY26 alone. $1.0bn authorised. Visible in each 10-Q cash flow statement.
Customer count 498,500 (Dec-25) → 493,800 (Mar-26), first sequential decline in eight quarters. Reported every quarter in the release.
Divvy credit quality Acquired card receivables $819.4m, allowance $18.3m (2.2%); provision $18.8m in Q3 FY26, +26% YoY. Balance sheet and income statement each quarter.

4. Explicitly NOT in this calendar

The following appear in press coverage and are not substantiated by any filing I located. They are excluded from the calendar and from the valuation:

If any of these is confirmed by a filing, it belongs in §1 with its accession number and several of the numbers in this memo change materially. Until then it is noise.

5. The one date that matters

Late August 2026. The Q4/FY2026 print carries, in a single document:

  1. FY2027 guidance — the test of whether core growth holds ≥13% (the base case) or breaks below 12% (the invalidation).
  2. Net dollar-based retention for FY2026 — 94% or lower ends the thesis.
  3. Businesses using our solutions at 30 June 2026 — a second consecutive sequential decline halves the position.
  4. The FY2026 take rate — FY2024 29.6bp, FY2025 31.2bp; a flat or lower FY2026 print is the mechanism stalling.

Everything in this memo resolves against that one filing, roughly four weeks from the as-of date. That is an unusually clean catalyst structure for a long.