Booking Holdings [BKNG]
Rule applied: never fabricate a date. Every entry is either filed or labelled INFERRED.
| Date | Basis | Event | Why it moves the thesis |
|---|---|---|---|
| Passed — 2026-04-06 | SPLITS endpoint, confirmed |
25-for-1 stock split, effective | Already reflected in spot ($191.565) and share count (794m diluted). Recorded because a pre-split share count paired with a post-split price would have understated market cap by 96% — the KLAC failure mode, worth 37pp of required CAGR there. |
| Late Jul / early Aug 2026 | INFERRED — Q1'26 8-K was 2026-04-28, Q3'25 was 2025-10-28. Not company-confirmed. | Q2 2026 results | The first room-night print after the deceleration to +5.9%, and the first read on whether the ~2pp Middle East drag reverses. This is the single most important scheduled event on the name. |
| Late Oct 2026 | INFERRED — Q3'25 8-K 2025-10-28, 10-Q 2025-10-28. Not company-confirmed. | Q3 2026 results | BKNG's seasonal peak quarter — Q3'25 carried $9,008m of revenue and a 38.7% filed operating margin against Q1'26's 23.0%. Q3 sets the full-year outcome. Also the anniversary of the $457m FY2025 impairment and $105m of transformation costs, both booked in Q3'25, so Q3'26 has an unusually flattered comparative on operating income. |
| Mid-Feb 2027 | INFERRED — FY2025 10-K filed 2026-02-18. Not company-confirmed. | FY2026 10-K | Full-year marketing as a percentage of gross bookings — the metric that carries the named downside case. FY2024 and FY2025 were both 4.40%. |
| Continuous, no date | Q1'26 10-Q | SEO traffic decline | The company states "we expect SEO traffic to decline in the short to medium term, which may lead to increased spend in paid marketing channels." This is a disclosed forward expectation, not a dated event, and it is the mechanism behind the downside case. No date is disclosed and none is invented here. |
| Continuous, no date | Q1'26 10-Q | Merchant mix shift at Booking.com | 62.9% → 69.9% of gross bookings across FY2024–25, and 66.8% → 72.0% across Q1. Each point inflates reported revenue with an offsetting cost in Sales and other expenses. The shift completes at some point and the revenue optic then deflates; the company gives no target and no date. |
| Not disclosed | — | Transformation Program completion | $34m (FY2024) → $205m (FY2025) → $25m (Q1'26) of transformation costs. No completion date is disclosed. The terminal margin bridge assumes it ends; that assumption has no filed date behind it and is flagged as such. |
EARNINGS_ESTIMATES trailing 30 days: FY2026 EPS 2 up / 25 down; FY2027 EPS 8 up / 18 down;
next quarter 3 up / 18 down; following quarter 1 up / 20 down. The worst revision breadth of the
three names in this run by a wide margin, and the direct reason the 12-month target is anchored at
roughly the 40th percentile of BKNG's own three-year multiple range rather than at the median.
AV endpoint caveat: fiscal_date_ending is null on all 38 records; the fiscal year of each
estimate was inferred from magnitude against trailing actuals. Inference stated, not silently made.