Phase Space AI

BillionToOne

BLLN · investment memo

Valuation margin
demonstrated − required CAGR
+53.1%
Required CAGR
50.3%
Demonstrated
103.4%
Terminal margin
10.2%
Exit multiple
33.0x
Company state
C
Terminal margin basis

max(own TTM operating margin 10.2%, growth-matched peer median) - the memo's own words. FLAG: max() against a peer median is a clamp and valuation.md rule 1 prohibits clamping; here it resolves to BLLN's own figure. m_EBIT,T 10.2 <= m_gross,T 70.4 SATISFIED. Equal to, not below, trailing.

Risk & exit

Four distinct questions, one field each. A price is not a thesis: the trigger below forces a re-underwrite and freezes further purchases — it is never an automatic sell.

Risk trigger
16% below the memo price
$112.17
Forward E[R]
vs a 0% floor
+13.9%

A daily close below $112.17 triggers a mandatory re-underwrite and freezes further purchases. It is not an automatic sell unless a separate fundamental invalidation condition has been breached.

Thesis-invalidation conditions

Fundamental and falsifiable, never price-based. If one is satisfied the thesis is marked dead and the position is retained only by explicit decision.

Impairment case

Under the previous framework the bear case fed the E[R] arithmetic that produced the rejection. It no longer does. It is logged with i

Documents

01 Company Research 02 Valuation Analysis 03 Trade Construction 04 Catalyst Calendar 05 MEMO BillionToOne BLLN 06 Model Notes BLLN Criteria and Valuation 2026-07-29 BLLN Research