BSX · investment memo
Four distinct questions, one field each. A price is not a thesis: the trigger below forces a re-underwrite and freezes further purchases — it is never an automatic sell.
A daily close below $40.52 triggers a mandatory re-underwrite and freezes further purchases. It is not an automatic sell unless a separate fundamental invalidation condition has been breached.
Not stated. This name has no falsifiable invalidation conditions on file, so it cannot be risk-monitored. That is a gap in the research, not a clean bill of health — recorded rather than hidden.
Named cause: PFA share loss compounds into a WATCHMAN air-pocket while tariffs hold gross margin flat. The path: Abbott's US PFA launch scales through 2027 into a four-handed market; US EP growth goes from mid-single-digit to flat; the LAAC guideline change does not arrive, so no NCD expansion, and WATCHMAN US settles at high-single-digit; FY2027 organic lands at 4–5% against the ~8% weighted-average market growth rate BSX claims to beat. At 4.5% organic and no multiple recovery from 3.71x EV/Sales, the equity is ~$40 (−13%); if the multiple compresses to 3.2x EV/Sales on a lost-share narrativ