Phase Space AI

Financial Model Notes

Bitdeer Technologies Group [BTDR]

Bitdeer Technologies Group [BTDR] — Financial Model Notes

As of: 2026-07-29 · Framework: v1.5.1 / criteria.md 2026-07-29 · All figures traced to primary EDGAR filings.

Per the brief, the screen's inputs were not trusted. Share count, TTM revenue and net cash were independently verified against primary filings, and net income ÷ shares ≈ filed EPS was cross-checked for scale. Every discrepancy is reported; none is silently adopted.

Verified inputs — all from the FY2025 20-F (IFRS)

Line FY2025 FY2024 FY2023
Revenue from external parties $618,952,000 $331,026,000 $367,800,000
Revenue from related party customers $1,301,000 $18,756,000 $754,000
Total revenue $620,253,000 $349,782,000 $368,554,000
— Self-mining $396,046,000 $163,086,000 $111,683,000
— Sale of mining rigs and accessories $108,328,000 $585,000 $2,000
— Membership hosting $61,182,000 $63,981,000 $79,906,000
— General hosting $35,009,000 $67,643,000 $97,321,000
— Others $10,746,000 $10,211,000 —
— AI cloud services $6,769,000 $3,450,000 $1,000
— Electricity subscription $1,258,000 $12,069,000 $27,419,000
— Hash rate subscription $845,000 $27,470,000 $40,290,000
— Cloud hosting arrangements $70,000 $1,058,000 $3,248,000
Cost of revenue ($559,261,000) ($283,382,000) ($290,745,000)
Gross profit / margin $60,992,000 / 9.8% $66,400,000 / 19.0% $77,809,000 / 21.1%
R&D ($153,876,000) ($76,946,000) ($29,534,000)
G&A ($84,415,000) ($64,317,000) ($66,454,000)
Other net gains / (losses) +$365,038,000 ($507,479,000) +$3,538,000
— of which change in FV of derivative liabilities +$444,861,000 ($498,167,000) —
Profit / (loss) from operations +$159,720,000 ($589,659,000) ($52,247,000)
Finance income / (expenses) ($88,890,000) ($11,935,000) +$1,276,000
Profit / (loss) for the year +$65,597,000 ($599,151,000) ($56,656,000)
Adjusted for the derivative mark ≈($379,264,000) ≈($100,984,000) —

Balance sheet at 2025-12-31

2025 2024
Cash and cash equivalents $149,352,000 $476,270,000
Restricted cash (current $22,366,000 + non-current $6,159,000) $28,525,000 $17,356,000
Cryptocurrencies $83,077,000 $77,537,000
Cryptocurrencies — receivables $135,558,000 —
Inventories $251,999,000 $64,888,000
Prepayments and other assets (current) $698,291,000 $291,929,000
Mining rigs $620,667,000 $67,324,000
Property, plant and equipment $441,797,000 $251,377,000
Total assets $2,804,572,000 $1,557,854,000
Borrowings, current $478,792,000 $208,127,000
Borrowings from a related party, current $275,000,000 —
Borrowings, non-current $468,000 —
Borrowings from a related party, non-current $246,831,000 —
Total borrowings $1,001,091,000 $208,127,000
Derivative liabilities, current $501,085,000 $763,939,000
Deferred revenue (current + non-current) $127,646,000 $129,229,000
Lease liabilities (current + non-current) $98,206,000 $78,133,000
Total current liabilities $1,520,662,000 $1,100,119,000
Total liabilities $1,936,724,000 $1,281,256,000
Net assets $867,848,000 $276,598,000
Treasury equity ($325,597,000) ($160,926,000)
Accumulated deficit ($583,407,000) ($649,004,000)
Shares outstanding 235,552,084 192,317,656

EPS cross-check

+$65,597,000 ÷ 235,552,084 = +$0.279. EarningsPerShare was not extracted cleanly in this pass because of the share-tagging unit inconsistency described below, so a formal tie to a filed EPS was not completed. Reported as a gap. Scale sanity holds: $620.3m of revenue across 235.6m shares is $2.63/share against an $8.92 price, i.e. 3.4x price/sales, consistent with the 5.2x EV/Sales computed on an enterprise basis.

Net cash reconstruction — the screen had NO data at all

Screen (scan_v3) This memo
Status INDETERMINATE, note "revenue MISSING" resolved from the 20-F
Revenue null $620,253,000
Shares null 235,552,084
Net cash null −$823,214,000 (cash $149.352m + restricted $28.525m − borrowings $1,001.091m)
EV null $3,207m ex $218.6m of crypto
EV / Sales null 5.2x

This is the cleanest D1 instance in the cluster. A $2.1bn company with $620m of fully-tagged revenue was dropped from the universe on a "revenue MISSING" note. The mechanism: BTDR is a 20-F filer reporting under IFRS with 6-K interims and no quarterly XBRL. Its revenue is tagged ifrs-full:Revenue, not us-gaap:RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax, and it exists only as an annual duration. A resolver that requires US-GAAP tags and/or four trailing quarters returns nothing — and the record then reports absence of data as absence of revenue. CLSK failed the same way ("revenue STALE (666d)").

Modelling notes and hazards

  1. IFRS, not US GAAP. Every figure above is ifrs-full:*. Do not mix with the US-GAAP names in this cluster without adjustment — in particular, IFRS carries digital assets and derivative liabilities at fair value through P&L on a different basis from ASU 2023-08, and IFRS capitalises leases into a single right-of-use/lease-liability framework.
  2. The most recent data is 2025-12-31 — seven months stale. There is no interim XBRL. Every other name in this cluster has a March or June 2026 balance sheet, and every checkable one decelerated 7–24% sequentially in the interim. Any BTDR model is built on data that predates the inflection its peers all reported. This is the single most important limitation in the file.
  3. Reported profit is unusable. The FY2025 +$65.6m is a +$444.9m derivative mark; FY2024's −$599.2m is a −$498.2m mark. Use Profit / (loss) from operations less Other net gains / (losses).
  4. Share tagging is internally inconsistent across filings. WeightedAverageShares reads 12,662,126,000 for FY2020–FY2022 in the FY2022 20-F but 108,681,000 for the same periods in the FY2023 20-F (a pre/post- reorganisation restatement), and the FY2025 6-K reports 192,095 where the annual figure is 137,426,000 — thousands versus units in the same tag. Normalise manually; do not build a per-share series mechanically.
  5. Model the three businesses separately — self-mining (63.9%), ASIC hardware (17.5%), hosting (15.9%) — plus AI cloud (1.1%). They have different cost structures, different comparators and different terminal values. The ASIC business needs a semiconductor comparator set, which this analysis did NOT build.
  6. Two large unexamined balance-sheet items. Prepayments and other assets of $698,291,000 (up $406.4m) and Cryptocurrencies — receivables of $135,558,000 (from nil, counterparty unidentified). Together $833.8m, or 29.7% of total assets. Both are open items.
  7. Power contracts are not established — see the research file. This is the dominant variable cost of 64% of revenue.
  8. Terminal value exceeds 60% of EV, so the reverse DCF is the mandatory primary long-horizon output. It was not solvable: the exit multiple is UNIDENTIFIED, and with annual-only data seven months stale there is no defensible near-term path to solve from.

Reproduction

Script Purpose
work/fetch.py downloads companyfacts and submissions for all eight CIKs from data.sec.gov
work/extract.py structured extraction: revenue, net income, EPS, shares, cash, debt, digital assets
work/dump.py exact-tag fact-series dump (--exact for precise tag matching)
work/rfiles.py lists a filing's R-file reports from FilingSummary.xml and renders one as text
work/grepdoc.py fetches a filing document, converts to text, caches it, greps with context
work/compute.py computes and reconciles every metric in the cluster table
work/prices.py Alpaca snapshot prices
work/cfcheck.py, work/cftest.py Cloudflare Workers/Pages quota probes

Commit: e67ab6405055a342b54a5ef03613a3650d59ab05