Four distinct questions, one field each. A price is not a thesis: the trigger below forces a re-underwrite and freezes further purchases — it is never an automatic sell.
Risk trigger 21% below the memo price
$258.01
Forward E[R] vs a 0% floor
+50.7%
A daily close below $258.01 triggers a mandatory re-underwrite and freezes further purchases. It is not an automatic sell unless a separate fundamental invalidation condition has been breached.
Thesis-invalidation conditions
Fundamental and falsifiable, never price-based. If one is satisfied the thesis is marked dead and the position is retained only by explicit decision.
Enterprise end-market revenue declines sequentially for two consecutive quarters while Communications grows. This is the direct confirming metric of the downside case: it is the AI/ML compute program rolling off. Enterprise was $1,157.1m in Q2 2026 against $830.4m in Q1 2026 and $433.1m in Q2 2025. Q2 2026
The number of ≥10% customers falls from three to two, or the largest customer's percentage falls more than 5pp year on year in an annual 10-K. Concentration going *down* would normally be good news; here it means a program was lost, because nothing else in the business is growing fast enough to dilute it. annual
Clean gross margin falls below 10.8% — the prior-TTM level — for two consecutive quarters. That would say the AI programs are being won on price, and it removes the 0.30pp of terminal gross-margin expansion the model underwrites.
Impairment case
Not stated. No permanent-loss case with a named cause is on file. A valuation bear case is not an impairment case.