COHR · investment memo
Four distinct questions, one field each. A price is not a thesis: the trigger below forces a re-underwrite and freezes further purchases — it is never an automatic sell.
A daily close below $166.64 triggers a mandatory re-underwrite and freezes further purchases. It is not an automatic sell unless a separate fundamental invalidation condition has been breached.
Not stated. This name has no falsifiable invalidation conditions on file, so it cannot be risk-monitored. That is a gap in the research, not a clean bill of health — recorded rather than hidden.
Named cause: the indium phosphide constraint inverts from a moat into a stranded asset. COHR is currently supply-constrained, which is why inventory is up 52.8% and DIO up 41.5 days. The bear case is that the constraint is resolved industry-wide — by external InP capacity, by silicon-photonics displacement of EML at 1.6T, or by co-packaged optics collapsing pluggable transceiver volumes faster than COHR's CPO line ramps. In that world COHR holds $2.1bn of inventory and a heavily capitalised 6-inch InP fab against falling ASPs, with 22% of revenue in two counterparties who have every incentive