MEMO HEADLINE, AND IT IS A UNIVERSE-WIDE CONSTANT, NOT A DERIVED FIGURE. The memo discloses this itself: the scan's COO_analysis.json has no terminal_margin key, and its published required_cagr_pct inverts exactly to a flat 20.0% applied to every name in the universe (coverage_scan.py's hardcoded 0.20). COO's own trailing operating margin is 16.7%. m_EBIT,T 20.0 <= m_gross,T 65.5 SATISFIED, and 20.0 is ABOVE trailing rather than below it, so this is not the below-trailing defect - it is the constant-substitution defect. See terminal_margin_pct_own_basis.
Risk & exit
Four distinct questions, one field each. A price is not a thesis: the trigger below forces a re-underwrite and freezes further purchases — it is never an automatic sell.
Risk trigger 12% below the memo price
$63.43
Forward E[R] vs a 0% floor
+6.8%
A daily close below $63.43 triggers a mandatory re-underwrite and freezes further purchases. It is not an automatic sell unless a separate fundamental invalidation condition has been breached.
Thesis-invalidation conditions
Fundamental and falsifiable, never price-based. If one is satisfied the thesis is marked dead and the position is retained only by explicit decision.
Price reaches $60.50 with the FY2026 organic guide of 3.5–4.5% intact and no seventh consecutive cut; or FY2026
CooperSurgical is agreed for sale at ≥15x EBITDA (≥$3.8bn) with proceeds committed to debt retirement and buyback — this creates the expectations gap the dissolved variant-vs-consensus test (old Gate 2) currently lacks, because the realised multiple becomes observable rather than assumed; or
FY2027 guidance (≈3 Dec 2026) comes in at ≥5% organic *and* FY2027 FCF guidance ≥$750m — which would break the six-quarter deceleration and constitute a genuine positive variant. FY2027
MiSight growth prints below 15% in any quarter — the modality-substitution thesis converting from category-share loss into absolute deceleration; or
CooperVision Asia Pacific declines >10% in any quarter, or the weakness spreads to EMEA; or
Gross margin falls below 66% on a non-GAAP basis for two consecutive quarters (tariffs no longer offset by FX).
Impairment case
Not stated. No permanent-loss case with a named cause is on file. A valuation bear case is not an impairment case.