Cooper Companies [COO]
As of 28 July 2026 · price $72.085 · investment-memo v1.6.0 — Catalyst Criteria is MEASURED: dated events that would confirm or refute the Valuation Criteria implied path (6.1% required vs 7.3% demonstrated). No position verdict is stated or implied by this calendar.
Every entry below is dated and carries an explicit upgrade / downgrade threshold. Dates marked (est.) are inferred from Cooper's historical reporting cadence (FQ3 released late Aug / early Sep; FQ4 + FY guidance early Dec; FQ1 early Mar; FQ2 late May / early Jun) and are not company-confirmed.
What. The company is in "round 2" of a process to separate CooperSurgical. CEO Albert White, FY26Q2 call (4 Jun 2026): "If that happens to be before we report earnings in the beginning of September, we'll certainly get a release out there. If not by then at least... there's nothing now holding us back from being able to move very quickly." Multiple parties described as interested; litigation, which had been gating the process, is settled.
Why it matters. This is the largest single swing factor in the name and the one item capable of creating the expectations gap the dissolved variant-vs-consensus test (old Gate 2) currently lacks — because an announced price converts an assumed multiple into an observed one.
| Outcome | Action |
|---|---|
| Sale agreed at ≥15x EBITDA (≥$3.8bn) with proceeds to debt + buyback | UPGRADE to LONG, 1.5% of book, regardless of price |
| Sale agreed at 12–15x ($3.0–3.8bn) | Re-run the Valuation Criteria implied path with the observed multiple |
| Sale agreed <12x, or a partial/piecemeal disposal | Negative — validates the bear read that CSI's GAAP optics are economic, not accounting |
| Review abandoned with no transaction and no explanation | Move to AVOID |
| No update by the FQ3 print | Neutral; the CEO left that possibility open |
How to check: SEC EDGAR 8-K Item 1.01 / 2.01 for CIK 0000711404; company press release.
Consensus: revenue $1,098.7m, non-GAAP EPS $1.1203 (n=13–14, Alpha Vantage). Note this estimate has been cut 5.9% in 90 days (from $1.1904).
| Metric to watch | Threshold | Action |
|---|---|---|
| FY2026 organic revenue guidance | A seventh consecutive cut below 3.5% | AVOID |
| Reaffirmed at 3.5–4.5% | Neutral — no change to the implied path | |
| Raised above 4.5% | Positive; re-run the dissolved variant-vs-consensus test (old Gate 2) | |
| CooperVision Asia Pacific | Decline >10% | AVOID trigger (guided to decline; the question is magnitude) |
| Decline 0–6% | In line with guidance | |
| MiSight growth | <15% | AVOID trigger — substitution thesis confirmed |
| >30% | Falsifies the substitution finding; re-underwrite the dissolved duration-variant test (old Gate 2B) | |
| Non-GAAP gross margin | <66% | Watch; <66% twice running = AVOID |
| Free cash flow YTD | Tracking to the $600–625m FY guide | Confirms the Quality Criteria mechanism |
The most informative scheduled event of the next twelve months, and the horizon anchor for this memo. Cooper initiates full-year guidance at the Q4 print (it did so on 4 Dec 2025 for FY2026).
| Metric | Threshold | Action |
|---|---|---|
| FY2027 organic revenue growth guide | ≥5.0% | Breaks the six-quarter deceleration → positive variant, re-run the dissolved variant-vs-consensus test (old Gate 2) |
| 4.0–5.0% | In line with the Base case | |
| <4.0% | Bear case confirmed; the deceleration is structural | |
| FY2027 free cash flow guide | ≥$750m | Confirms the >$2.2bn FY26-28 objective is on track → UPGRADE condition (with a ≥5% organic guide) |
| <$650m | The FCF inflection is not happening on the stated schedule | |
| FY2026 actual organic growth | vs the 3.5–4.5% guide | Seventh cut = AVOID |
| Buyback run-rate | Annualised >$450m | Confirms the capital-allocation pivot |
First clean quarter post-separation if a transaction completes. Watch RemainCo margin structure and the share count.
Currently 3.65% of float, 2.8 days to cover. A move above 8% of float would change the Liquidity Criteria read and signal that someone is expressing the substitution thesis with capital.
Query device/pma for trade_name:"MiSight" and trade_name:"MyDay".
- A "Labelling Change — Indications" supplement on P180035 would be the first in 6.7 years and would
materially change the myopia TAM read → re-underwrite the dissolved duration-variant test (old Gate 2B).
- Any US PMA record for MyDay MiSight appearing → same.
- Continued absence of both → the Section 3.1 finding stands.
CooperVision's pre-myopia prevention study (n=110, single-arm, PREVENTION). An increase in enrolment, addition of sites, or conversion to a randomised design would signal the company is building toward a registration package rather than running an exploratory study — the earliest observable sign that the prevention indication is real. A withdrawal or termination would remove the last positive item from the myopia pipeline.
Re-run the phrase counts for "myopia control", "MiSight" and "defocus incorporated multiple segments" on full-year 2026 data. DIMS share rolling over would falsify the substitution finding. Continued divergence confirms it.
Two open-market buy clusters (Sep-2025 and Dec-2025) totalling $2.52m, zero discretionary sales in thirteen months. A third buy cluster, particularly by the CEO below $65, would be a strong confirmation datapoint. The first discretionary code-S sale by the CEO or CFO would be a meaningful negative given the current record.
Cooper is ~50% non-US revenue and manufactures in the UK, Puerto Rico and Hungary. FY26Q2 gross margin was held flat only because "positive FX [offset] higher costs including tariffs." A dollar rally removes that offset and the tariff drag becomes visible in reported gross margin. No dated event; monitor with each print.
| Date | Event | Tier |
|---|---|---|
| On or before ~2 Sep 2026 | CooperSurgical strategic-review update | 1 |
| ~2 Sep 2026 (est.) | FQ3-2026 results | 1 |
| ~15 Sep / 30 Sep 2026 | FINRA short-interest settlements | 2 |
| Oct 2026 | openFDA PMA quarterly check | 2 |
| ~3 Dec 2026 (est.) | FQ4-2026 results + FY2027 guidance | 1 |
| Jan 2027 | PubMed full-year 2026 publication counts | 2 |
| ~Feb 2027 (est.) | DEF 14A proxy — compensation targets reveal what management is being paid to do | 2 |
| ~Mar 2027 (est.) | FQ1-2027 results | 2 |
Per the framework, ongoing monitoring hands off to the plugin skills equity-research:catalyst-calendar
and equity-research:thesis-tracker rather than being rebuilt here at each check-in. The price alert at
scripts/price_alert.sh should carry the $60.50 conversion level and the $54.00 invalidation level.
Mandatory review date regardless of price action: 3 December 2026 (FY2027 guidance). A watchlist entry with no dated review is indistinguishable from indecision — CALIBRATION_WATCH item B6.