Core Scientific

CORZ · investment memo

Valuation margin
demonstrated − required CAGR

-31.5%

Required CAGR

180.8%

Demonstrated

149.3%

Terminal margin

—

Exit multiple

6.6x

Company state

Terminal margin basis

NULL, and correctly so. CORZ's valuation instrument is a SALES multiple (6.6x EV / annualised AI revenue), so no terminal EBIT margin enters the arithmetic at any point and none was set. Had an EBIT-basis DCF been attempted, a terminal margin for a company running a -56% gross margin in one segment would have been INDETERMINATE absent a named, evidenced mechanism. Do not substitute a peer median here.

Risk & exit

Four distinct questions, one field each. A price is not a thesis: the trigger below forces a re-underwrite and freezes further purchases — it is never an automatic sell.

Risk trigger
25% below the memo price

$13.63

A daily close below $13.63 triggers a mandatory re-underwrite and freezes further purchases. It is not an automatic sell unless a separate fundamental invalidation condition has been breached.

Thesis-invalidation conditions

Fundamental and falsifiable, never price-based. If one is satisfied the thesis is marked dead and the position is retained only by explicit decision.

Any CoreWeave renegotiation, deferral or termination. 83.2% of revenue and the SPV financing both sit on that one counterparty. CORZ has already booked a $41.9m loss on contract termination in Q2 2026, so this is a demonstrated risk, not a hypothetical.
Q2 2026
Colocation gross margin falling below ~50%. It is 59%; the thesis depends on power staying a pass-through.

Impairment case

Named cause: CoreWeave counterparty concentration, geared through an SPV. This is not diversifiable revenue risk. 83.2% of CORZ's revenue comes from one customer, and the financing is built on that customer's contracts: 1. CoreWeave is ~590MW of a business with essentially no other disclosed colocation customer of scale. AMD is named but unquantified. 2. CoreWeave's own balance sheet is levered: $24,859m of debt against $2,244m of cash, plus $9,563m of non-current operating lease liabilities, on $6,227m of TTM revenue. CoreWeave is itself financing a very large buildout. 3. CORZ assigned certa

Documents

CORZ Catalyst Calendar CORZ Financial Model Notes CORZ Research CORZ Trade Construction CORZ Valuation

Generated from each name's analysis.json. Figures are research output, not investment advice. Gaps are shown as “—” rather than filled: a missing input is recorded as indeterminate, never estimated.