CPRX · investment memo
BUILT from the company's own opex bridge on primary EDGAR filings, anchored on the Q1-2026 actual (49.0%), the first quarter containing the permanent January-2026 FIRDAPSE royalty step-down. Bridge: gross 88.0% - R&D 2.0% - SG&A 32.0% - intangible amortisation 6.0% = 48.0%. Closes on actuals: 90.3 - 1.78 - 33.0 - 6.5 = 49.0% = reported Q1-2026 operating margin.
Four distinct questions, one field each. A price is not a thesis: the trigger below forces a re-underwrite and freezes further purchases — it is never an automatic sell.
A daily close below $27.71 triggers a mandatory re-underwrite and freezes further purchases. It is not an automatic sell unless a separate fundamental invalidation condition has been breached.
Not stated. This name has no falsifiable invalidation conditions on file, so it cannot be risk-monitored. That is a gap in the research, not a clean bill of health — recorded rather than hidden.
Type: MEASURED. Logged and scored; it rejects nothing. Realistic permanent-loss scenario, and its cause. Underwritten as at the last quarter for which the business was a going public concern, i.e. ignoring the merger: > Named cause: failure of the acquisition engine, with FIRDAPSE as the only load-bearing asset. > > Catalyst has no discovery capability (R&D = 2.2% of revenue) and every product is licensed or acquired. Its > growth is a function of doing deals. In 2025 it reviewed over 100 targets and did none. FYCOMPA demonstrated > that its deal underwriting can be wrong: ~$198m paid in Janua