CRDO · investment memo
Own opex bridge, CRDO_Valuation.md s5.3: gross 67.0 - R&D 18.0 - SG&A 11.0 - other 0.0 = 38.0. Bridge reproduces FY2026 actual to 0.03pp. CORRECTED value: the stored 15.6%/screen 16.4% sat 17.7pp BELOW CRDO's own 33.33% trailing actual (industry-p75 clamp), which alone inflated required CAGR by 27.3pp (48.8% -> 76.1%).
Four distinct questions, one field each. A price is not a thesis: the trigger below forces a re-underwrite and freezes further purchases — it is never an automatic sell.
A daily close below $133.09 triggers a mandatory re-underwrite and freezes further purchases. It is not an automatic sell unless a separate fundamental invalidation condition has been breached.
Not stated. This name has no falsifiable invalidation conditions on file, so it cannot be risk-monitored. That is a gap in the research, not a clean bill of health — recorded rather than hidden.
Named cause: Customer A (49% of revenue) in-sources its AEC/retimer content or dual-sources it to a larger merchant supplier, with no contractual protection to prevent it. This is the specific, evidenced risk — and §3.4 establishes there is no contractual barrier: design wins are "not legally enforceable contractual obligations," and the 10-K warns a customer "may determine not to proceed with a contemplated project and cancel the project with little notice." CRDO's competitors are "substantially larger" with "greater financial, technical, marketing, distribution" resources — Marvell and Broad