Credo Technology Group [CRDO]
Catalyst Criteria is MEASURED — it informs monitoring, never admission. As of 2026-07-29. No date in this file is invented. Every entry is either (a) filed and dated, or (b) explicitly marked ESTIMATED with the pattern it is estimated from. Credo has not published a fiscal-2027 earnings-date schedule; a fabricated date would be worse than an absent calendar.
| Date | Event | Source | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-02 | FY2026 fiscal year end | 10-K crdo-20260502.htm |
Revenue $1,335.1m; the last fully reported period. |
| 2026-06-01 | Q4 / FY2026 results released; Q1 FY2027 guidance $465–475m issued | 8-K Ex-99.1, acc. 0001628280-26-039474 |
Sets the sequential run-rate the implied path is tested against. |
| 2026-06-15 | FY2026 10-K filed | acc. 0001628280-26-043303 |
Source of the customer-concentration tables, the $31.9m RPO and the DustPhotonics subsequent event. |
| May 2026 (day not disclosed) | DustPhotonics acquisition closed — $770m cash + ~0.8m shares | 10-K Note 16 | Removes 53% of the net cash the screen used. Adds silicon photonics. |
| 2026-05-28 | CEO special PSU grant approved — six tranches, revenue $2.5bn → $7.5bn, stock $244.70 → $489.40 | 10-K Note 16 | Management-revealed five-year forecast; used as the cross-check in Valuation §4. |
| 2031-06-30 | End of the CEO PSU five-year performance period | 10-K Note 16 | The terminal date of management's own stated ladder. |
Credo has reported on a stable quarterly cadence for four years. The pattern, from filed 8-K dates:
| Fiscal quarter | FY2025 | FY2026 | Pattern |
|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 | 2024-09-04 | 2025-09-03 | first week of September |
| Q2 | 2024-12-02 | 2025-12-01 | first week of December |
| Q3 | 2025-03-04 | 2026-03-02 | first week of March |
| Q4 / FY | 2025-06-02 | 2026-06-01 | first week of June |
| Estimated date | Event | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| ~2026-09-02 (ESTIMATED) | Q1 FY2027 results. The decisive print. | Pattern-based; not company-confirmed. |
| ~2026-12-01 (ESTIMATED) | Q2 FY2027 results | Pattern-based. |
| ~2027-03-01 (ESTIMATED) | Q3 FY2027 results | Pattern-based. |
| ~2027-05-01 (ESTIMATED) | FY2027 fiscal year end (Saturday nearest 30 April) | Fiscal-calendar convention; FY2026 ended 2026-05-02. |
| ~2027-06-07 (ESTIMATED) | Q4 / FY2027 results — the ">$500m optical revenue in fiscal 2027" target is settled here | Pattern-based. |
Credo has also twice used intra-quarter 8-Ks to move the stock outside the earnings cadence — a preliminary revenue release on 2026-02-09 and the DustPhotonics announcement on 2026-04-13. Neither was scheduled. Unscheduled 8-Ks should be treated as a live, recurring catalyst class on this name, not an anomaly.
Everything material about this thesis is testable in a single print, roughly five weeks out.
| What to read | Guided / current | Thesis intact if | Thesis broken if |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $465–475m guided (+7.6% sequential) | ≥ $470m, and Q2 guided ≥ +7% sequential | Below $465m, or Q2 guided flat-to-down |
| Sequential growth | +7.4% (Q4 FY2026) | Holds ≥7% or re-accelerates | A fourth consecutive quarter sub-8% with no optical disclosure |
| Days of inventory | 164 days, +16 sequentially | Falls below 150 | Above ~180 |
| Optical revenue | Target >$500m for FY2027; nothing disclosed to date | Any disclosed figure tracking to $500m | Target not repeated, deferred, or withdrawn |
| Customer concentration table (10-Q) | Top-3 end customers 84% | A fourth ≥10% customer appears | A top-three customer steps below its FY2026 share |
| GAAP operating margin | ~31.9% implied by guidance | ≥ 30% | Below 28% for two consecutive quarters |
| GAAP opex | $167.6–171.6m guided (+19.2% sequential) | Lands in range | Overshoots without a revenue offset |
| Item | Status |
|---|---|
| DustPhotonics contingent consideration — up to 2.8m shares and $31.6m cash on "achievement of certain financial milestones" | Milestones and dates not disclosed. Payment would signal the optical ramp is landing; non-payment is equally informative and equally unobservable. |
| Optical revenue as a reported line item | Credo has never disclosed an optical revenue figure. Whether it starts to is itself the signal. |
| Product launches / speed-grade transitions (1.6T, 3.2T NPO/CPO) | No dated roadmap published. 1.6T has appeared in every quarterly release since 2023-05; 3.2T appears only in the DustPhotonics release. |
| Hyperscaler capex guidance from the end customers | Customer identities are undisclosed, so this cannot be mapped to Credo's specific revenue. Directionally relevant, not attributable. |
| Analyst days / investor conferences | No confirmed dates. None asserted. |