Salesforce [CRM]
As of 2026-07-29. Catalyst Criteria is MEASURED: dated events that would confirm or refute the implied path. Time works for a long, so a dated event is not required to own a compounder.
No date below is invented. Where a date is not yet announced it is marked as an estimate derived from the company's own filing history, and the derivation is shown. A fabricated catalyst date is worse than an absent calendar.
| Date | Event | What it tests | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 FY27 (Sep–Nov 2026) | $25bn ASR final settlement. Company states "final settlement expected in Q3 FY27," with ~26m of ~129m shares still to be delivered. | Fixes the share count at ~793m. Mechanically raises FY27 EPS ~3% versus a 819m base. The cash has already left the balance sheet, so this is share-count arithmetic, not a new capital decision. | Confirmed in the Q1 FY27 release |
Salesforce has reported Q1 results in the last week of May and filed the 10-Q within one day, for each of the last four years. The estimates below extrapolate that cadence and are labelled as estimates.
| Estimated date | Event | What it tests | Derivation |
|---|---|---|---|
| ~late Aug 2026 | Q2 FY27 results (quarter ends 2026-07-31) | The single most important test. Guidance is 10–11% reported including "slightly above 4pts" Informatica — i.e. ~6–7% organic, the weakest organic quarter of the cycle. Also: first clean read on subscription gross margin after the Q1 compression, and on whether the strategic-investment gain reverses. | Q2 FY26 was reported 2025-09-03; Q2 FY25 early Sep. Late Aug/early Sep. |
| ~early Dec 2026 | Q3 FY27 results (quarter ends 2026-10-31) | Where management has explicitly promised organic acceleration — "confident in delivering organic revenue acceleration in the second half of FY27." This is a self-set, falsifiable test. Also the quarter in which the ASR settles. | Q3 FY26 10-Q filed 2025-12-04. |
| ~late Feb / early Mar 2027 | Q4 FY27 results and first FY28 guidance | First guide in which Informatica anniversaries out of the growth rate. Reported growth and organic growth converge, and the 8% organic base becomes visible in the headline for the first time. Also: progress against the FY30 targets management continues to reference. | FY26 10-K filed 2026-03-02; Q4 release 2026-02-25. |
| ~May 2027 | Q1 FY28 results | cRPO becomes an uncontaminated indicator again. Informatica is in the prior-year base from this point, so cRPO growth is finally a clean read on organic bookings — the only leading indicator Salesforce publishes, given no retention rate is disclosed. | Q1 FY27 reported 2026-05-27. |
| Event | What it tests | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Agentforce ARR crossing $2bn | Bull-side falsifiable test from Research §11. At +205% the run-rate reaches $2bn within ~3 quarters; the company has disclosed the figure for four consecutive quarters, so continuation is likely but not promised. | Disclosed quarterly in the release, no separate date |
| Reversal of the strategic-investment portfolio | $7,772m carried at 30 Apr 2026. A negative mark of similar magnitude to Q1's +$558m would cut GAAP EPS by ~$0.50 with no operating meaning. Prior-year quarter was −$63m, so both directions are precedented. | Mark-to-market, no date |
| Further debt-funded repurchase | The Q1 action took net cash from +$2.6bn to −$27.4bn. Management describes "maximizing shareholder value" alongside the FY30 targets. No further ASR is announced. | Not announced — do not model |
| Consumption-pricing disclosure | If Salesforce ever discloses seats, price, or a retention rate, the §5 bear case becomes measurable for the first time. There is no indication it intends to. | No commitment |