CrowdStrike [CRWD]
As of 2026-07-29. Catalyst Criteria is MEASURED.
No date below is invented. Estimates are derived from CrowdStrike's own filing cadence and marked as estimates with the derivation shown.
| Date | Event | Status |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-25 (passed) | 4-for-1 stock split record date. Each holder received three additional shares for every one held. | Confirmed in the Q1 FY27 release |
| 2026-07-02 (passed) | Split-adjusted trading began. Verified in the raw price series: $772.74 → $193.98, a −74.9% session with volume rising from 2.69m to 10.44m shares. | Confirmed — and this is the event the Tier-1 screen missed, producing a 4.0x market-cap error |
CrowdStrike has reported Q1 in the first days of June and filed the 10-Q the next day (Q1 FY27: 8-K 2026-06-03, 10-Q 2026-06-04). Q2 lands in late August, Q3 in early December, Q4/FY in early March with the 10-K days later.
| Estimated date | Event | What it tests | Derivation |
|---|---|---|---|
| ~late Aug 2026 | Q2 FY2027 results (quarter ends 2026-07-31) | Guided: revenue $1,436–1,442m, ARR $5,792.6–5,794.6m, non-GAAP income from operations $345.6–349.1m. The key test: whether GAAP operating income improves WITHOUT further help from the commission-amortisation change. The change lifted Q1 by $27.9m and the Q1 GAAP profit of $27.8m did not survive it — Q2 is the first chance to see the underlying trajectory. Also whether net new ARR is tracking the raised full-year +27.7% guide. | Q2 FY26 10-Q filed 2025-08-28. |
| ~early Dec 2026 | Q3 FY2027 results (quarter ends 2026-10-31) | Third quarter under the new commission policy. Also the seasonally strongest bookings quarter, so the cleanest read on whether the net-new-ARR acceleration is real. | Q3 FY26 10-Q filed 2025-12-03. |
| ~early Mar 2027 | Q4 FY2027 results and the FY2027 10-K | THE MOST INFORMATIVE SINGLE DISCLOSURE ANY OF THESE FIVE COMPANIES PUBLISHES: the annual dollar-based net retention rate. It has run 125.3% (FY23) → 119% (FY24) → 112% (FY25) → 115% (FY26), exact and uncensored in every year. Above 118% is the bull-side trigger; below 112% — the July-19 trough — is the bear-side trigger. It is disclosed once a year and only in the 10-K, so the Defender-bundling and expansion-pricing questions in the Downside case can be answered on this date and on no other. Also: first FY28 guidance. | Q4 FY26 8-K 2026-03-03; FY26 10-K filed 2026-03-05. |
| ~early Jun 2027 | Q1 FY2028 results | Anniversary of the commission-policy change, so the year-over-year comparison normalises and the accounting benefit stops flattering the growth in GAAP operating income. | Q1 FY27 8-K 2026-06-03. |
| Event | What it tests | Status |
|---|---|---|
| CRWD disclosing an AI revenue or ARR figure | Named partnerships exist with OpenAI (Trusted Access for Cyber), Anthropic (Project Glasswing), AWS, NVIDIA and Intel, plus Project QuiltWorks, Charlotte AI AgentWorks, Agentic MDR and AIDR — and not one dollar of revenue is attributed to any of them. More specific than WDAY's or PANW's narrative, and still not a measurement. Any dollar figure would be a genuine change. | No commitment. Do not model. |
| "Falcon Flex" disclosure in a filing | The CFO names Falcon Flex as a growth driver in the release, and it appears 0, 0, 0 and 2 times across the last three 10-Ks and the latest 10-Q. The widest press-release-to-filing gap in this cluster. Any substantive filing disclosure of Flex economics would be new information. | No commitment |
| The July 19 Incident legal and commercial tail | Still discussed 55 times in the Q1 FY27 10-Q, two years on. Lawsuits, claims and inquiries are named as ongoing in the risk factors. No settlement or resolution date is disclosed. | Ongoing. No date — do not invent one. |
| Quarterly DBNRR returning | CRWD moved to annual-only net-retention disclosure around FY2025; the quarterly releases now define the metric without publishing a value. Restoring the quarterly figure would materially shorten the feedback loop on the Downside case. | No commitment |
| Buyback coverage crossing 1.0x | Q1 FY27 repurchased 480k shares for $175.6m against $297.7m of SBC — 0.59x coverage — and the share count still rose 0.46%. A larger authorisation is not announced. | Not announced — do not model |
| Further tuck-in M&A | Four closed in the last three quarters (Onum 2025-09-12, Pangea 2025-09-26, Seraphic 2026-02-03, SGNL.AI 2026-02-20), $881.4m of cash in Q1 FY27 alone plus $74m held in escrow for business combinations. The escrow implies at least one further deal is contracted. | $74m escrow disclosed; no deal named |
| The non-controlling interest | $18.2m of Q1 FY27 pre-NCI income went to minority holders versus −$0.8m a year earlier, on $41.5m of NCI equity. I have not established what entity this is and it is disproportionately large relative to earnings. A genuine gap in my understanding. | Unresolved — flagged, not explained |