Phase Space AI

Doximity

DOCS · investment memo

Valuation margin
demonstrated − required CAGR
+2.4%
Required CAGR
13.1%
Demonstrated
15.5%
Terminal margin
34.0%
Exit multiple
12.2x
Company state
A
Terminal margin basis

Built from DOCS's own normalised economics: 5-year mean GAAP operating margin 34.1%, trailing FY2026 33.3%. Opex bridge 89.1% gross - 20.0% R&D - 25.0% S&M - 10.1% G&A = 34.0%, reconciling to the filed 33.3% on FY2026 actuals. No percentile clamp applied.

Risk & exit

Four distinct questions, one field each. A price is not a thesis: the trigger below forces a re-underwrite and freezes further purchases — it is never an automatic sell.

Risk trigger
13% below the memo price
$18.76
Forward E[R]
vs a 0% floor
+5.4%

A daily close below $18.76 triggers a mandatory re-underwrite and freezes further purchases. It is not an automatic sell unless a separate fundamental invalidation condition has been breached.

Thesis-invalidation conditions

Not stated. This name has no falsifiable invalidation conditions on file, so it cannot be risk-monitored. That is a gap in the research, not a clean bill of health — recorded rather than hidden.

Impairment case

Named cause: loss or renegotiation of the 11%-of-revenue customer, in a pharma marketing budget contraction, while 83% of revenue sits with 125 buyers. The mechanism is specific and dated by the disclosure: DOCS has just concentrated to a single 11% customer for the first time, its own risk factor states that *"the sudden loss of any of our largest customers or the renegotiation of any of our largest customer contracts… could have a significant impact on our revenue"*, and NRR at 109% means the *aggregate* base is already barely expanding. If NRR falls below 100%, revenue declines without any

Documents

DOCS Catalyst Calendar DOCS Financial Model Notes DOCS Research DOCS Trade Construction DOCS Valuation