DXCM · investment memo
Four distinct questions, one field each. A price is not a thesis: the trigger below forces a re-underwrite and freezes further purchases — it is never an automatic sell.
A daily close below $66.12 triggers a mandatory re-underwrite and freezes further purchases. It is not an automatic sell unless a separate fundamental invalidation condition has been breached.
Not stated. This name has no falsifiable invalidation conditions on file, so it cannot be risk-monitored. That is a gap in the research, not a clean bill of health — recorded rather than hidden.
Named cause: CMS declines or indefinitely defers type-2 non-insulin coverage while Abbott prices the 15-day transition away. DXCM's price requires a 15.24% reported revenue CAGR against 11–13% guided for FY2026 (see Valuation). The gap is closed almost entirely by the Medicare non-insulin population — *half* of the type-2 non-insulin opportunity by the company's own statement — and that decision has no date. If CMS defers past 2028 and Abbott responds to the 15-day launch on price, DXCM settles at 9–10% growth with gross margin capped near 63% rather than progressing to 66%. On 10% growth and