Catalyst Calendar

DexCom [DXCM]

DexCom [DXCM] — Catalyst Calendar

As of 2026-07-29. Every entry is disclosed by the company or by a named congress. Nothing is inferred.

Dated

Date	Event	Why it matters	Confirms / refutes
Summer 2026	Prime Therapeutics begins covering DexCom CGM for all people with diabetes	Disclosed by CEO Leach in Q1 2026 prepared remarks. Takes covered commercial type-2 non-insulin lives from >6m toward the >7m end-2026 target.	The type-2 non-insulin mechanism
ADA 2026 Scientific Sessions	Full readout of the type-2 non-insulin randomized controlled trial	Leach: "we expect this trial can become the defining study for the non-insulin population… the cornerstone of our evidence base for any global payer that is waiting to see RCT-level data." Compared by management to DIaMonD and MOBILE.	The CMS/payer argument in the implied-path test
Q2 2026 (imminent)	Q2 2026 earnings — not yet available; AV carries no 2026Q2 transcript	Second quarter of the G7 15-day full launch and of the raised margin guide.	FY2026 11–13% revenue and 23–23.5% op-margin guide
"Coming weeks" from Q1 2026	Stelo complete redesign ships — consumer UI, AI-driven insights, macronutrient food logging	The OTC/non-diabetic vector. Carried at zero in the valuation because no Stelo revenue, unit or subscriber figure has ever been disclosed.	Pure option value
"Coming weeks" from Q1 2026	New adhesive/patch technology reaches market (FDA-cleared early 2026; manufacturing began May 2026)	Expected "to strengthen sensor survivability across our product portfolio" — directly supports gross margin via reduced replacement.	m_gross,T = 66.0%
End-2026	>7 million commercial type-2 non-insulin lives covered (company target)	Quantified company target, not an estimate.	The reimbursement step function
2026 (in progress)	Continued G7 15-day conversion of the installed base	Revenue per patient-year and gross margin both rise; rebate treatment confirmed unchanged.	Terminal margin

Undated — explicitly NOT modelled

CMS coverage for the type-2 non-insulin population. This is the single largest value driver in the name — "around half of those with type 2 diabetes not using insulin sit within the Medicare population" — and management's only guidance on timing is "we continue to view this decision as only a matter of time." No date is disclosed. No date is asserted. It is not in the 12-month target. The implied-path test's PASS WITH ARGUMENT rests partly on this limb, and that dependency is disclosed in the valuation rather than hidden inside a probability.
Smart Basal commercial launch — currently "expanding access within our pilot KOLs." Pre-commercial, no date, not modelled.
Abbott Libre competitive responses to the 15-day launch. No disclosure exists to date.

Occurred this cycle — recorded because they set the current multiple

Date	Move	Note
2025-05-02	+16.17%
2025-09-19	−10.99%
2025-10-31	−14.63%	Q3 2025 print — the "deceleration" quarter analysts pressed on
2026-05	+$14 over the month ($59.5 → $73.7)	Coincides with the ADA/RCT window; DXCM has since made a higher low

Generated from each name's analysis.json. Figures are research output, not investment advice. Gaps are shown as “—” rather than filled: a missing input is recorded as indeterminate, never estimated.