ENPH · investment memo
FY2022 operating margin - the last clean pre-45X year (revenue $2,330.9m, operating income $448.3m, zero AMPTC recognised). Deliberately the most generous defensible number: the best product operating margin the company has ever recorded. Used in the EV/EBIT CROSS-CHECK (s2.2); the PRIMARY formulation is on EV/Sales, which removes this parameter because reported operating margin is 152-221% financed by a statute that is zero from 2033. Inverting the model (s2.3): at flat revenue the price requires a 34.5% terminal margin, nearly double the record.
Four distinct questions, one field each. A price is not a thesis: the trigger below forces a re-underwrite and freezes further purchases — it is never an automatic sell.
A daily close below $27.03 triggers a mandatory re-underwrite and freezes further purchases. It is not an automatic sell unless a separate fundamental invalidation condition has been breached.
Not stated. This name has no falsifiable invalidation conditions on file, so it cannot be risk-monitored. That is a gap in the research, not a clean bill of health — recorded rather than hidden.
Type: MEASURED. Logged; blocks nothing. Named cause: safe-harbour exhaustion revealing the underlying US run-rate, into a §45X step-down. Not a volatility figure. The mechanism is specific: Q2-2026 revenue excluding safe-harbour shipments was $207.6m, an $830m annual run-rate. §25D is gone. The §48E begin-construction window closed 2026-07-04, so no new safe-harbour agreements of that type can be written. The existing $1.08bn of executed agreements converts into shipments over roughly 2026–2027 and then stops. Going concern: NO. This must be state