Enphase Energy [ENPH]
As of 2026-07-29. Every date below is taken from a filing or a statute. No date is estimated. Where a date is not yet announced, that is stated and the historical pattern is given as context only — it is not a forecast and must not be quoted as one.
| Date | Item | Effect | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-04-15 | California NEM 3.0 in effect | Average hourly export rate ~$0.05/kWh vs ~$0.30 prior | in force |
| 2025-06-16 | §48E domestic-content threshold | Raised 40% → 45% for projects commencing construction after this date | in force |
| 2025-07-04 | OBBBA enacted | Scales back IRA clean-energy credits | in force |
| 2025-12-31 | §25D residential ITC expired | The credit for residential solar and storage purchased with cash or a loan is gone | FIRED |
| 2026-01-01 | §45X FEOC / PFE thresholds begin | Escalating non-FEOC content requirements for components produced from 2026 | in force |
| 2026-02 | Treasury / IRS FEOC guidance | Rules and interim safe harbours issued for §48E and §45X. Company states additional proposed regulations and safe harbours are expected — no date given, none assumed | in force |
| 2026-07-04 | §48E begin-construction deadline | 12 months from OBBBA enactment. Projects not under construction by this date lose §48E if placed in service after 2027-12-31. This is what the $1.08bn of safe-harbour agreements was racing | FIRED |
| 2027-12-31 | §48E placed-in-service deadline | Hard stop for projects that missed the begin-construction date. Begins to bind on the $878.6m Physical Work Test pipeline during the next twelve months | ahead |
| 2030 | §45X AMPTC steps to 75% | 11¢/W → 8.25¢/W. "The AMPTC on microinverters decreases by 25% each year beginning in 2030" | ahead |
| 2031 | §45X AMPTC 50% | 5.5¢/W. This is the terminal year of a five-year model built today | ahead |
| 2032 | §45X AMPTC 25% | 2.75¢/W | ahead |
| 2033 onward | §45X AMPTC zero | The credit that is 220.5% of TTM operating income ends. This is the perpetuity a terminal multiple is applied to | ahead |
| 2026-01-01 → 2031-01-01 | California SB 302 | State gross-income exclusion for direct-pay receipts and credit transfers, for tax years in this window | in force |
| 2028-03-01 | Notes due 2028 mature | $575.0m principal, 0.0% coupon, conversion price $284.87. At $35.05 this is a cash obligation, payable from the $937.7m securities balance | ahead |
| Date | Item | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-28 | Q2-2026 results + Q3-2026 guidance | Occurred. Revenue $291.9m, GAAP gross margin 60.0%, GAAP operating income $51.5m, diluted EPS $0.27. Q3 guidance: revenue $290–320m including ~$75m of safe-harbour shipments, GAAP gross margin 42.0–45.0%, GAAP opex $120.0–124.0m |
| 2026-03-02 | 2026 convertible notes settled | $632.5m cash, no shares issued |
| 2026-03 | §45X transfer election | $235.0m of 2025 AMPTC sold at 93% of face; $16.5m discount, $2.5m fees |
| 2026-05-07 | New safe-harbour agreement announced | With a US solar and battery financing company offering leases and PPAs |
| 2026-06 | §45X transfer agreement | Up to $150.0m of 2026 AMPTC at 93%; $37.5m of Q1-2026 vintage sold for ~$34.9m |
| 2026-06 | IQ9N residential microinverter launched | US and key European markets; Australia and New Zealand in July 2026 |
| 2026-06-17 | Intersolar Europe, Munich | IQ Battery G5, IQ9N, IQ Bidirectional EV Charger, IQ Energy Management shown |
| 2026-07-21 | European battery-expansion capability | Existing second-generation IQ Battery owners can add an IQ System Controller for home backup |
| 2026-07-27 | Kestrel ASIC white paper | "The Enphase Kestrel ASIC: A Purpose-Built Platform for Intelligent Power Conversion" |
| Q2-2026 | IQ9S-3P commercial microinverter | Began shipping in the US. 548 W GaN, 480 V three-phase |
These are company statements of timing. They are quoted, not converted into dates.
| Item | Company language | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| IQ SST full-system demonstration | "remain on track for a full-system demonstration later this year" (Q2-2026 press release, 2026-07-28) | The single event that could produce a target above spot. The only mechanism in the name that is not policy-dependent |
| IQ SST commercial pipeline | "a few opportunities advancing to the RFI and RFP stages and representing a potential multi-gigawatt pipeline" | Pipeline, not backlog. A named customer with a disclosed contract value is the hard invalidation trigger |
| Further §45X / §48E FEOC regulations | "Treasury and the IRS have indicated that additional proposed regulations and safe harbors [are expected]" | The LFP-cell exposure ("supplied exclusively by two vendors located in China") is the specific risk |
Enphase has not announced its Q3-2026 earnings date. No date is assumed here. For context only, the last three third-quarter filings were made on 2025-10-28, 2024-10-22 and 2023-10-26; the last three annual reports on 2026-02-17, 2025-02-10 and 2024-02-09. These are historical filing dates, not predictions, and must not be used as calendar entries.
The Q3-2026 report is the first quarter in which the safe-harbour contribution can be compared against a guided figure ($75m) rather than discovered after the fact, and the first read on whether ex-safe-harbour revenue stabilises above or below the Q2-2026 level of $207.6m.