EVLV · investment memo
A STATED ASSUMPTION, not a build and not a comparator draw - the memo says so explicitly and publishes a 12%/15%/18%/22% grid in place of defending it. Constraint m_EBIT,T 18.0 <= m_gross,T 49.8 satisfied. Above the trailing actual of -26%, so the 'terminal below trailing' failure mode does not apply.
Four distinct questions, one field each. A price is not a thesis: the trigger below forces a re-underwrite and freezes further purchases — it is never an automatic sell.
A daily close below $4.85 triggers a mandatory re-underwrite and freezes further purchases. It is not an automatic sell unless a separate fundamental invalidation condition has been breached.
Not stated. This name has no falsifiable invalidation conditions on file, so it cannot be risk-monitored. That is a gap in the research, not a clean bill of health — recorded rather than hidden.
Named cause 1 — SEC enforcement action (probability 30%). The company self-reported to the Division of Enforcement in November 2024 and there is a parallel SDNY inquiry. No accrual, no Wells notice disclosed. An enforcement order with disgorgement and penalties, landing on a company with unremediated material weaknesses, would reset the multiple. Estimated impact: multiple to ~3x forward sales on $180m → $540m EV → $3.15/share, −43%. Named cause 2 — the mix shift exhausts and the market re-rates to hardware (probability 25%). Once the installed base that wants to own its hardware has converted