Evolv Technologies Holdings [EVLV]
Catalyst Criteria · type: MEASURED · blocks nothing. Time works for a long, so a dated event is not required to own a compounder. These are the events that would confirm or refute the implied path.
Every date below is either (a) filed with the SEC, or (b) explicitly marked as an estimate from the company's own historical filing cadence. Nothing is invented. A fabricated catalyst date is worse than an absent calendar.
| Date | Event | Source | Confirms / refutes |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-24 | Securities class action — final fairness hearing | Q1 2026 10-Q, Note 13; court granted preliminary approval 2026-04-16 | Removes the largest quantified private-litigation overhang. $15.0m settlement, $14.3m insurer-funded → ~$0.7m net cash cost. A denial of final approval reopens it. |
| 2025-12-31 (passed) | Columbia Tech Distribution and License Agreement expired | FY2025 10-K | Already visible: Q1 2026 licence revenue $1,170k vs $3,718k, −69% YoY. A ~$8m annualised, ~89%-margin headwind runs through FY2026. |
| 2026-04-16 (passed) | Preliminary approval of class-action settlement | Q1 2026 10-Q | Done. |
| 2026-05-04 (passed) | Agreement in principle to settle all three derivative actions | Q1 2026 10-Q | Governance reforms + $1.3m plaintiffs' fees, insurer-paid. Definitive documentation and court approval still pending — no date filed. |
| 2026-05-12 (passed) | FY2026 guidance raised from $172–178m to $175–180m | Q1 2026 release, Ex-99.1 | The raise is the single most important disclosure in the file: it sets reported FY2026 growth at +20–23%, i.e. below the 24.5% the price requires. |
EVLV's recent reporting dates: Q1 2026 10-Q 2026-05-12; FY2025 10-K 2026-03-10; Q3 2025 10-Q 2025-11-13; Q2 2025 10-Q 2025-08-14.
| Estimated window | Event | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| ~mid-August 2026 (est.) | Q2 2026 results | The single most important scheduled event. Q1 printed +45% against full-year guidance of +20–23%. Q2–Q4 must therefore average roughly +13–15%. This print is the first test of whether the recognition mix shift is a step or a trend. Watch: (i) recurring vs non-recurring split, (ii) ARR, (iii) product gross margin, (iv) whether guidance holds. |
| ~mid-November 2026 (est.) | Q3 2026 results | Second data point on the same question. Also the last chance to see remediation progress before the FY2026 ICFR assessment. |
| ~March 2027 (est.) | FY2026 10-K | The ICFR assessment as of 12/31/2026. Five material weaknesses were open at 12/31/2025 with no changes at all during Q1 2026. Whether any close is the governance catalyst. Also: ending ARR vs the $145–150m guide. |
| Event | Status | Why it is undated |
|---|---|---|
| SEC Division of Enforcement — Feb 2024 subpoena (marketing practices) + subsequent requests | OPEN. Cooperating. No accrual, no Wells notice disclosed. | Enforcement investigations carry no public timetable. |
| SEC Enforcement — self-reported sales-practices investigation (Nov 2024) + document requests | OPEN. No accrual. | As above. |
| U.S. Attorney's Office, SDNY — voluntary document requests, same subject matter | OPEN. No accrual. | As above. |
| Material weakness remediation | 2 of 7 remediated at 12/31/2025; 5 plus an IT general-controls weakness remain; no ICFR change in Q1 2026 | Assessed annually. Next assessment date 12/31/2026. |
| Plexus contract-manufacturing transition | Agreement signed 2025-11-05. Management expects reduced product cost and improved gross margin "over time" — no date given | The company has not put a date on it, so neither does this calendar. |
| eXpedite installed-base attach | Ramping — named as a Q1 2026 growth driver; disclosure frequency 0 → 25 mentions over nine filings | Continuous, not an event. |
| FTC Stipulated Order compliance | Injunction entered 2024-12-05, no monetary relief; school-cancellation window closed 2025-03-30 | Ongoing obligation, no scheduled review. |
Q2 2026 (est. mid-August). Everything in this memo reduces to a single testable proposition: reported revenue growth must step down from +45% toward +20% as the hardware pull-forward annualises, while ARR growth holds near +20%. If both happen, the analysis is confirmed and the price is expensive against the recurring path. If reported growth stays above +35% and ARR growth accelerates with it, the mix-shift interpretation is wrong and the screen was right.