Phase Space AI

Financial Model Notes

Evolv Technologies Holdings [EVLV]

EVLV — Financial Model Notes

Every figure below is traced to a primary filing. Where a figure is derived, the derivation is shown. Nothing is estimated without being labelled an estimate.


1. Sources

Document Accession Filed Period
10-K FY2025 0001805385-26-000012 2026-03-10 FY ended 2025-12-31
10-Q Q1 2026 0001805385-26-000028 2026-05-12 Q ended 2026-03-31
8-K + Ex-99.1 (Q1'26 release) 0001805385-26-000027 2026-05-12
10-K FY2024 (the restatement filing) 0001628280-25-020355 2025-04-28 FY2024 + restated FY2022/FY2023
10-Q Q3 2024 (filed with the 10-K) 0001628280-25-020353 2025-04-28 Q ended 2024-09-30
10-K FY2023 (as originally filed, superseded) 0001628280-24-008053 2024-02-29 FY2023
10-K FY2022 (as originally filed, superseded) 0001628280-23-009178 2023-03-24 FY2022
NT 10-K 2025-03-31 late-filing notification
NT 10-Q 2025-05-15 late-filing notification

XBRL: data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001805385.json, retrieved 2026-07-29. Latest tagged period 2026-03-31 — recency asserted, not stale.


2. Income statement

Annual, $000 — restated basis where restated

FY2022 FY2023 FY2024 FY2025
Revenue 52,719 79,565 103,865 145,905
(as originally filed) 55,195 80,418
Gross profit 1,400 31,907 59,462 75,302
Gross margin 2.7% 40.1% 57.2% 51.6%
R&D 23,446 20,619
S&M 60,637 45,626
G&A 56,602 54,858
Restructuring 860 2,662
Impairment 224
Total opex 141,769 123,765
Operating loss (82,307) (48,463)
Interest expense (1,732)
Interest income 2,942 1,536
Δ FV contingent earn-out 16,310 12,435
Δ FV contingently issuable stock 2,529 2,614
Δ FV public warrants 6,592 435
Total other income, net 28,290 15,387
Tax 62
Net loss (86,795) (108,048) (54,017) (33,138)
Basic EPS (0.60) (0.72) (0.34) (0.20)

Modelling note — the mark-to-market problem. $15.4m of FY2025's $15.4m "other income" is fair-value remeasurement of earn-out, contingently issuable stock and public warrants. Other income equals the mark-to-market almost exactly. Net loss narrowed from $54.0m to $33.1m largely because these liabilities shrank as the share price fell. Model operating loss, not net loss. The contingent earn-out liability was $374k at 12/31/2025 and zero at 3/31/2026, so this tailwind is now exhausted.

Quarterly revenue, $000 — verified from XBRL

Q ending Revenue Notes
2024-03-31 22,181 restated (orig. 21,668)
2024-06-30 25,224 restated (orig. 25,540)
2024-09-30 27,360
2024-12-31 29,100 derived: FY2024 103,865 − 74,765
2025-03-31 32,007
2025-06-30 32,544
2025-09-30 42,850
2025-12-31 38,504 derived: FY2025 145,905 − (32,007+32,544+42,850). 10-Ks do not tag Q4 as a discrete period.
2026-03-31 46,328

Modelling note — the Q4 trap. A TTM built by summing tagged quarterly XBRL periods silently omits Q4 for every calendar-year filer. Q4 2025 must be derived from the annual. The framework's TTM defect (a TTM that skipped Q4 entirely) is live on this name.

Revenue by line, $000

FY2025 FY2024 Δ% GM FY25 GM FY24
Product 21,637 6,464 +235% −12% −66%
Subscription 83,839 65,046 +29% 56% 57%
Service 29,375 23,467 +25% 71% 78%
License fee and other 11,054 8,888 +24% 89% 93%
Total 145,905 103,865 +40% 51.6% 57.2%
Q1, $000 Q1 2026 Q1 2025 Δ%
Product 13,421 2,322 +478%
Subscription 23,148 19,237 +20%
Service 8,589 6,730 +28%
License fee and other 1,170 3,718 −69%
Total 46,328 32,007 +45%
Product gross margin +11.7% −37.1%
Ex-product revenue 32,907 29,685 +10.9%

TTM build

TTM Q1'26 = FY2025 145,905 − Q1'25 32,007 + Q1'26 46,328 = **160,226**

TTM operating loss = −48,463 + 14,389 − 8,472 = **−42,546**−26.6% margin.


3. Balance sheet — 3/31/2026, $000

Assets Liabilities & equity
Cash and equivalents 56,081 Accounts payable 17,089
Marketable securities 4,992 Accrued expenses & other 30,345
Accounts receivable, net 42,713 Deferred revenue, current 75,314
Inventory 8,256 Operating lease liab., current 3,116
Contract assets, current 1,199 Total current liabilities 125,864
Commission asset, current 5,644 Deferred revenue, non-current 17,036
Prepaid & other current 33,094 Long-term debt 28,665
Total current assets 151,979 Operating lease liab., non-current 10,190
Commission asset, non-current 7,728 Contingent earn-out
PP&E, net (leased units) 127,839 Contingently issuable stock 392
Operating lease ROU 11,871 Public warrant liability 1,818
Other 5,222 Total liabilities 183,965
Total assets 304,639 Equity (accum. deficit 392,811) 120,674

Net cash = 56,081 + 4,992 − 28,665 = $32,408k.

Modelling note — three balance-sheet items a screen will get wrong. 1. Long-term debt of $28,665k did not exist before Q3 2025. A net-cash routine calibrated on an older filing returns $61.1m instead of $32.4m — a $28.7m, 3% EV error. Verified here; the screen got it right. 2. PP&E of $127.8m is the leased fleet, not corporate assets. Depreciation on it sits in cost of subscription revenue. Any EBITDA-based multiple is therefore very different from an EBIT-based one on this name, and the two are not interchangeable. 3. $92.4m of deferred revenue is cash already collected. It is why operating cash burn (−$3.2m in Q1'26) is far smaller than the operating loss (−$8.5m).


4. Key metrics — narrative disclosures, not XBRL tags

Metric 12/31/2024 12/31/2025 3/31/2026 FY2026 guide
ARR $99.4m $120.5m (+21%) $127.3m (+20%) $145–150m (+20–25%)
RPO $266.7m $293.6m (+13%) $299.0m
Revenue $103.9m $145.9m (+40%) $175–180m (+20–23%)
Adjusted EBITDA +$3.9m (Q1) positive, high-single-digit margin
New end-users added 243
New-unit mix ~45% pure subscription / ~55% purchase subscription

This is the central modelling point of the memo. None of ARR, RPO, the recurring/non-recurring split, or the deployment mix is an XBRL-tagged fact. They exist only in narrative MD&A and press-release text. A screen reading us-gaap:Revenues sees +40% and cannot see +20%. EVLV first disclosed ARR in a periodic filing on 2025-11-13 (Q3 2025 10-Q); before that no ARR series existed at all.


Drive the model off ARR and units, not off revenue:

  1. ARR = prior ARR × (1 + net revenue retention) + new-logo ARR. Guide: $145–150m at 12/31/2026.
  2. Subscription + recurring service revenue ≈ average ARR over the period. This is the durable line.
  3. Product (non-recurring) revenue = new units × purchase-subscription share × ASP. Model this as a declining share of new deployments after 2027, not as a growing line. It is a conversion of the installed-base preference, and preferences saturate. Guided at ~55% of new units in 2026.
  4. License fee revenue → zero after FY2026. Columbia Tech expired 2025-12-31; residual quotes only.
  5. Gross margin = mix-weighted: product 12%→25% (Plexus, undated), subscription 56%, service 71%. Blended gross margin falls as long as product mix rises. This is arithmetic, not a forecast.
  6. Opex: G&A should fall — the FY2025 10-K states investigation and restatement costs "are believed to be substantially non-recurring." R&D guided up in 2026; S&M up "modestly."
  7. Below the line: model nothing. The fair-value remeasurements are unforecastable and the earn-out is now zero.

Do not build a forward DCF as the primary output. Terminal value is ~100% of EV. The reverse DCF in EVLV_Valuation.md is the primary instrument; a forward DCF here would be an opinion about the terminal multiple dressed as a valuation.


6. Data-hygiene checks run

Check Result
TTM from four quarters, not last FY Done. $160.2m, not $145.9m. Using FY2025 would overstate EV/Sales by 10%.
Q4 present in the TTM Done. Q4 2025 derived ($38,504k); not tagged as a discrete period.
Filing recency Pass. Latest XBRL period 2026-03-31; 10-Q filed 2026-05-12.
Restated vs original figures Both captured. FY2022 and FY2023 differ; the restated basis is used throughout and the originals are shown.
Net income ÷ shares ≈ filed EPS Pass. FY2025 $(33,138)k ÷ $(0.20) = 165.7m weighted, between 159.6m opening and 175.4m closing shares.
Dual class N/A. Single class of common; no preferred outstanding.
Missing tag → INDETERMINATE, not FAIL Applied. GrossProfit and all needed tags are present; no criterion was scored off a nan.