EXEL · investment memo
Exelixis' own FY2025 operating margin, which is what the screen used and what this memo held fixed. TTM is 39.4%; FY2026 guidance-derived is 38.1%.
Four distinct questions, one field each. A price is not a thesis: the trigger below forces a re-underwrite and freezes further purchases — it is never an automatic sell.
A daily close below $49.73 triggers a mandatory re-underwrite and freezes further purchases. It is not an automatic sell unless a separate fundamental invalidation condition has been breached.
Not stated. This name has no falsifiable invalidation conditions on file, so it cannot be risk-monitored. That is a gap in the research, not a clean bill of health — recorded rather than hidden.
Named cause: the Federal Circuit reverses or vacates the 23 October 2024 MSN II judgment, removing the 15 January 2030 floor on generic CABOMETYX entry. Argued 4 June 2026; decision pending; could land any week. Full construction in EXEL_Trade_Construction.md; bear case $34 (−40%), probability 0.30.