Exelixis [EXEL]
As of 2026-07-29 · spot $56.51
Rule observed: no date appears here that is not in a filing, a company press release or a court docket. Where an event is real but the date is not public, it is listed as UNDATED rather than estimated. A fabricated catalyst date is worse than an absent calendar.
| Date | Event | Source | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-05 (after close) | Q2 FY2026 results + conference call 5:00pm ET | Exelixis press release, 2026-07-22 | Seven days out and not in this analysis. FY2026 product guidance of $2,325–2,425m requires +13.1% YoY in Q2–Q4 against Q1's +8.1%. The cleanest test of the NET-launch mechanism |
| 2026-08-14 | U.S. Patent 7,579,473 (composition of matter) EXPIRES, with patent term extension | FY2025 10-K, Item 1 | The MSN I judgment's floor date. From here, exclusivity rests entirely on the secondary estate and the MSN II judgment now on appeal |
| 2026-09-30 (month) | U.S. cabozantinib royalty reverts from Royalty Pharma to GSK | FY2025 10-K, Note on Royalty Pharma | Payee change only — the rate stays 3%. No P&L effect; listed so it is not misread as one when it appears in the Q3 filing |
| 2026-11-02 | Consolidated Litigation trial, D. Del. — MSN (on the '039 patent, expiry 2032) and Azurity (505(b)(2) cabozantinib tablets). Sun was dismissed 2025-12-30 on settlement | FY2025 10-K Note 12; Q1 FY2026 10-Q Note 11 | The second front. Determines whether the 2032 estate holds independently of the appeal |
| 2026-11-xx (week undetermined) | Q3 FY2026 results — prior-year analogue 2025-11-04 | prior filings | Second read on the guidance bridge |
| 2026-12-03 | ⭐ ZANZALINTINIB PDUFA — FDA target action date, zanzalintinib + atezolizumab, previously treated metastatic CRC. Standard review | Q1 FY2026 press release, 2026-05-05; NDA accepted Feb 2026 | The largest dated event. 50–77% of enterprise value sits in assets with no approved revenue; this is the first of them to face a decision. Note the second dual primary endpoint missed on 2026-06-22 |
| 2027-01-xx | J.P. Morgan Healthcare Conference — FY2027 guidance — prior-year analogues 2026-01-11/12 and 2025-01-12 | prior filings | First guidance to include (or exclude) zanzalintinib revenue |
| 2027-12-31 | Deadline for the $750m share repurchase program authorised October 2025 (management said in May 2026 it expected to complete it that month); a further $750m authorised May 2026 runs to end-2027 | 8-K Ex-99.1 2026-01-11 and 2026-05-05 | ~10% of shares retired in five quarters. EPS growth runs ahead of net-income growth for as long as this continues |
| 2030-01-15 | Earliest permitted FDA approval of MSN's generic CABOMETYX, per the Delaware District Court final judgment of 2024-10-23 (expiry of the '439, '440 and '015 patents), "subject to our potential additional regulatory exclusivity" | FY2025 10-K Note 12 | The date the entire five-year case rests on. Currently on appeal |
| 2032-02-10 | '349 patent expiry (2032 also for '039) | FY2025 10-K, Item 1 | The estate beyond 2030, if it holds |
| 2033 | '342 formulation patent expiry — never asserted against MSN | FY2025 10-K, Item 1 | The unasserted backstop |
| Event | Status | Why no date is given |
|---|---|---|
| ⭐ CAFC decision, Exelixis v. MSN Laboratories, No. 2025-1236 | Argued 2026-06-04, audio posted the same day. Briefing completed 2025-08-01. Decision pending | Federal Circuit opinions commonly issue 3–12 months after argument, but that is a base rate, not a date. No date is asserted. This is simultaneously the largest catalyst and the one that cannot be calendared |
| STELLAR-304 topline — zanzalintinib + nivolumab vs sunitinib, 1L advanced non-clear-cell RCC; primary endpoints PFS and ORR; enrolment completed May 2025 | Guided "second half of 2026" (Q1 FY2026 release, 2026-05-05) — revised from "mid-2026" at the January guide | Event-driven; the company gives a half, not a date |
| STELLAR-303 NLM detailed data at a medical conference | Company said detailed findings "will be submitted for presentation at an upcoming medical conference" (2026-06-22) | Conference not named |
| STELLAR-316 initiation — adjuvant CRC, MRD-positive by Natera Signatera; primary endpoint DFS | Guided mid-2026; not yet confirmed initiated | Guidance is a half |
| STELLAR-311 readout — zanzalintinib vs everolimus in advanced NET | Enrolling since June 2025 | Event-driven, no guidance given |
| XL557 and XB773 INDs | Two INDs guided for 2026 | Year only |
| Handa 505(b)(2) — Exelixis' response | Notice received Nov 2025 with a Paragraph III certification on '473; Exelixis "continues to evaluate all legal and strategic options" | Exelixis has not sued. The 45-day window to trigger a 30-month stay is long past |
| Sun settlement — agreed entry date | Settled Dec 2025, litigation terminated 2025-12-30 | NOT DISCLOSED in any filing. The single most valuable unknown about this company |
| Date | Event | Stock reaction (close-to-close, and +3 sessions) |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-11/12 | FY2025 preliminary results, FY2026 guidance, JPM presentation | +0.0%, +3.2% at +3d |
| 2026-02-10 | FY2025 audited results, 10-K filed | −2.2%, −0.1% at +3d |
| 2026-05-05 | Q1 FY2026 results; second $750m buyback authorised; PDUFA date disclosed | +0.6%, +9.0% at +3d |
| 2026-06-04 | CAFC oral argument, No. 2025-1236 | +1.7%, +2.7% at +3d |
| 2026-06-22 | STELLAR-303 second dual primary endpoint MISSED — OS in patients without liver metastases, stratified HR 0.83 (95% CI 0.66–1.05), p = 0.1185; median OS 15.9 vs 12.7 months | −1.1%, +2.5% at +3d |
| 2026-07-22 | Q2 results date announced (2026-08-05) | — |
Read the 22 June reaction carefully. A phase 3 dual primary endpoint missed and the stock fell 1.1%, then recovered within three sessions. The market is treating the met ITT endpoint as the operative basis for approval and is not discounting the miss. Whether the FDA agrees is answered on 3 December 2026.
Time works for a long, so a dated event is not required to own a compounder. It is nonetheless supplied here, and the calendar has an unusual shape worth naming:
The two events that determine most of this security's value are (a) undated by construction — a court decision — and (b) 127 days away. In between there is one earnings print, seven days out, that tests a guidance bridge Q1 did not support. That is the monitoring agenda.