Phase Space AI

Fabrinet

FN · investment memo

Valuation margin
demonstrated − required CAGR
-1.5%
Required CAGR
31.3%
Demonstrated
29.8%
Terminal margin
9.8%
Exit multiple
14.0x
Company state
A

Risk & exit

Four distinct questions, one field each. A price is not a thesis: the trigger below forces a re-underwrite and freezes further purchases — it is never an automatic sell.

Risk trigger
22% below the memo price
$322.85
Forward E[R]
vs a 0% floor
+35.3%

A daily close below $322.85 triggers a mandatory re-underwrite and freezes further purchases. It is not an automatic sell unless a separate fundamental invalidation condition has been breached.

Thesis-invalidation conditions

Not stated. This name has no falsifiable invalidation conditions on file, so it cannot be risk-monitored. That is a gap in the research, not a clean bill of health — recorded rather than hidden.

Impairment case

Named cause: co-packaged optics removes the assembly step FN is paid for. FN is paid to assemble discrete optical modules. CPO integrates the optical engine into the switch or XPU package, and that work migrates to the ASIC packaging supply chain — OSAT and foundry advanced packaging — not to an optical contract manufacturer in Thailand. This is not a hypothetical: it is the question the sell side put to FN nine times in prepared remarks and five times in Q&A in the most recent quarter, the highest CPO Q&A intensity in this cluster. Compounding it: 45.8% of revenue sits with two customers, one

Documents

FN Catalyst Calendar FN Financial Model Notes FN Research FN Trade Construction FN Valuation