Phase Space AI

Catalyst Calendar

Fabrinet [FN]

Fabrinet [FN] — Catalyst Calendar

Built 2026-07-29. Every date is a filed date, a company-stated window, or an inference explicitly labelled as such. No date is fabricated.

Dated and confirmed

Date Event Why it matters Source
~2026-08-10 to 08-19 (window) Q4 / FY2026 results + first FY2027 guide The highest-information event. Tests the Q4 guide of $1.25–1.29bn (+40% YoY) and "gross margin dynamics similar to Q3." The FY2027 guide is what the 12-month target rests on — the target needs ~+38% and management has said new programmes contribute "more meaningfully in fiscal 2027 than in the fourth quarter" without a number FY2025 results 8-K filed 2025-08-18 (report date 2025-08-12); FY2024 pattern identical. FY2026 date not yet announced — window inferred and labelled
~2026-08-15 to 08-22 (window) FY2026 10-K The only place the named-customer table and the receivables table appear. Tests whether NVIDIA's revenue share moved from 27.6%, whether Cisco held 18.2%, and — the AAOI test — whether either name's receivable share rises above its revenue share. That single comparison is the most valuable number FN publishes FY2025 10-K filed 2025-08-19
~2026-11-03 (window) Q1 FY2027 results First read on whether the $150m/quarter high-performance-compute milestone was reached; first read on whether the gross margin's four-year slide (12.71% → 11.96%) continues FY2026 Q1 results 8-K filed 2025-11-03
~2026-12-10 (window) Annual meeting Prior-year proxy filed 2025-10-23 for a 2025-12-11 meeting DEF 14A 2025-10-23
~2027-02-02 (window) Q2 FY2027 results The FY2027 new-programme ramp should be revenue-bearing by here FY2026 Q2 results 8-K filed 2026-02-02

Company-stated milestones without a fixed date

Window Event Company language Consequence
~Q4 FY2026 / Q1 FY2027 High-performance compute reaches $150m per quarter "we now believe that the $150 million mark will be pushed out by maybe one quarter... short term, this quarter we do not think we get to $150 million, but we think it is probably a quarter away" The only quantified new-revenue milestone FN has given. ~12% of quarterly revenue at the current base
FY2027 New customer programmes ramp "we are excited by the number of new customer programs coming online that we expect will contribute more meaningfully to our performance in fiscal 2027 than in the fourth quarter" Unquantified and unnamed. This is the gap between the required 31.27% CAGR and what is currently evidenced
Ongoing Component supply normalises "a broader supply-constrained environment... component availability that is not keeping pace with strong demand"; "datacom growth expected to be more measured" Cuts both ways: relief lifts datacom revenue, but it also removes the scarcity that currently protects pricing

What is NOT on this calendar, and why

Monitoring triggers, not catalysts

  1. Same-quarter DSO (not TTM-basis — see the research file §4.1). Q3FY26 68.3d against Q3FY25 68.9d. The TTM measure reads +4.7d and would falsely convict this name; the same-quarter measure is flat. Watch the same-quarter series only.
  2. Gross margin. 12.71% → 12.35% → 12.09% → 11.96%. FN has no margin runway and its terminal value is bounded by this line. A print below ~11.5% removes the cushion between the terminal margin (9.8%) and the ceiling entirely.
  3. Datacom versus telecom. Q3FY26: telecom $628m (+55%), datacom ≈$261m. The bear case (co-packaged optics disintermediating module assembly) confirms as datacom declining year-on-year for two consecutive quarters while telecom grows.