FROG · investment memo
BUILT_OPEX_BRIDGE
Four distinct questions, one field each. A price is not a thesis: the trigger below forces a re-underwrite and freezes further purchases — it is never an automatic sell.
A daily close below $57.03 triggers a mandatory re-underwrite and freezes further purchases. It is not an automatic sell unless a separate fundamental invalidation condition has been breached.
Not stated. This name has no falsifiable invalidation conditions on file, so it cannot be risk-monitored. That is a gap in the research, not a clean bill of health — recorded rather than hidden.
Scenario: −45% to −55%, to $33–40 per share. Probability 25%. Named cause: the unbilled-RPO mechanism reversing. 40.6% of total RPO — $233.4m — is contracted but unbilled, up from 19.3% two years ago. That balance is the accounting expression of large multi-year enterprise commitments signed across 2024–2026. The mechanism is not fragile because the contracts are cancellable; they are disclosed as non-cancellable. It is fragile because it requires continuous replacement. The trigger chain: 1. New large-deal signings pause for two to three quarters. Most likely proximate causes: enterprise DevO