JFrog [FROG]
Every date carries an explicit confidence label. Where no date is disclosed, none is invented — a fabricated catalyst date is worse than an absent calendar.
| # | Event | Date | Confidence | Basis |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q2 2026 results + FY2026 guidance revision | early August 2026 | INFERRED, NOT CONFIRMED | Q2 10-Qs were filed 2024-08-08 and 2025-08-08; the call precedes the filing by ~1 day. No confirmed date appears in any filing or transcript retrieved. |
| 2 | Cloud share holding above 50% | Q2 2026 print | TIED TO EVENT 1 | SaaS reached 51% of revenue in Q1 2026, the first crossing. FY2026 baseline cloud growth guided 33–35% |
| 3 | $300m share repurchase execution | ongoing from March 2026 | CONFIRMED | Q1 2026 10-Q, Note 11: "In February 2026, the Board of Directors approved a share repurchase program authorizing the repurchase of up to $300.0 million… The program became effective in March 2026 and has no expiration date." |
| 4 | Revision, reaffirmation or RETIREMENT of the $800m FY2027 revenue target | not scheduled | NO DATE — explicitly not disclosed | Q1 2025 call: "we will revisit the long-term model, and we may come…". Q4 2025 call, asked if $800m was "just kind of aspirational": "we are on track with that number" |
| 5 | Q3 2026 results | early November 2026 | INFERRED, NOT CONFIRMED | Q3 10-Qs filed 2024-11-08 and 2025-11-07 |
| 6 | FY2026 results + FY2027 guidance (the $800m test) | mid-February 2027 | INFERRED, NOT CONFIRMED | 10-Ks filed 2026-02-13, 2025-02-14, 2024-02-15, 2023-02-09 |
#1 — Q2 2026 results. The highest-value event in the window.
FY2026 guidance of $628–632m (+18.5%) implies near-flat sequential revenue from Q1's $154.0m for
three consecutive quarters. Sequential revenue has risen in each of the last 23 quarters, and
2025's Q1→Q4 sequential step-up was +18.7%; applying it to 2026 gives roughly $669m, some
6% above the guide. Q1 "exceeded the top end of our guidance range on every metric." FY2025 FCF margin
was guided at 19% and delivered 26.75% — a 7.75pp beat. The guide reads as a floor and a raise
is the base case. The Q2 print also refreshes every invalidation trigger in
FROG_Trade_Construction.md §5.
#2 — Cloud above 50%. The mix crossing is symbolic; the margin is the test. Blended gross margin rose 284bp YoY while SaaS mix rose 8pp, turning mix shift from dilutive to accretive. Whether that holds as SaaS goes past 55% is what permits the terminal gross margin in the valuation to be held at the current level rather than marked below it.
#3 — The buyback. $300m is 3.4% of market cap and the first structural offset to SBC of 28.3% of revenue. Whether it is actually used at scale is the test of whether the falling SBC/revenue ratio — which supplies roughly 60% of the reported GAAP operating-margin expansion — converts into a falling share count. Watch the quarterly outstanding-share count, not the authorisation.
#4 — The $800m FY2027 target. The single largest downside catalyst. $800m off the $630m FY2026 guide requires +27.0% in FY2027 — an ACCELERATION from the guided +18.5%. This is the one live candidate for a retired metric at FROG, and the Street's $92.62 target rests on it. A reset removes the anchor. Note that management has already twice declined to walk it back while also declining to reaffirm it cleanly.
#5 / #6 — The remaining prints.
outside the 12-month target window but inside any position horizon.
No investor day, product launch, conference appearance or analyst-day date is listed, because none is disclosed in any filing or transcript retrieved. JFrog's product-release cadence (swampUP conference, platform releases) is real but no dated event was verifiable, so none is recorded.