Phase Space AI

Catalyst Calendar

First Solar [FSLR]

First Solar [FSLR] — Catalyst Calendar

As of 2026-07-29. Catalyst Criteria is MEASURED — it informs monitoring, and blocks nothing.

Rule applied here: no date is written down unless a filing or a statute establishes it. Where a date is expected but not established, it is marked so explicitly. A fabricated catalyst date is worse than an absent calendar.

Dated and established

Date Event Source Why it matters
2025-07-04 OBBBA (H.R.1) signed into law 10-K, verbatim Accelerated termination of §48E ITC / §45Y PTC for solar; FEOC restrictions on §45X eligibility
~2026-07-04 ⚠️ PASSED Begin-construction deadline for US utility-scale solar to remain §45Y/§48E-eligible FY2025 10-K: "utility-scale solar projects generally must begin construction by early July 2026 to remain eligible for the 45Y or 48E credits" The single dated trigger of the downside case, and it has already occurred — 25 days before this memo. No US utility-scale project breaking ground after it qualifies for the ITC/PTC
2026-03-25 USITC instituted Investigation No. 337-TA-1494 on FSLR's petition 10-Q Q1 2026 Seeks a general exclusion order against imported TOPCon modules (Canadian Solar, JinkoSolar, Mundra, Philadelphia Solar, Hanwha QCells, Runergy, Trina, VSUN)
2026-04-14 BYD America moved to intervene as a respondent in 337-TA-1494 10-Q Q1 2026 Widens the potential exclusion perimeter
2026-03-27 / 2026-04-02 Mundra/Adani and JinkoSolar district-court cases stayed pending the USITC determination 10-Q Q1 2026 Makes the ITC ruling the single controlling event for the whole patent campaign
2025-06-09 AD/CVD orders issued on Cambodia / Malaysia / Thailand / Vietnam solar products 10-Q Q1 2026 Subsidy rates 14.64%–3,403.96%; already in force
2025-07-17 Second AD/CVD petition filed (India, Indonesia, Laos) 10-Q Q1 2026 Alleged dumping margins to 249.09%; determinations pending
H2 2026 South Carolina finishing facility "expected to commence operations" 10-K and 10-Q, verbatim Sixth US plant; onshores final production for internationally-initiated modules — increases §45X-eligible volume
2030 §45X phase-down begins 10-K: "available from 2023 through 2032, subject to phase down beginning in 2030" Begins removing ~100% of current operating income
2032 §45X unavailable thereafter same Terminates the earnings base entirely. Inside a 5-year DCF horizon
2030 Last year safe-harboured US solar projects may be placed in service and retain §45Y/§48E 10-K, verbatim End of the qualified-demand cushion

Expected but NOT established — recorded as such

Event Status Evidence for the expectation
Q2 2026 results DATE NOT ANNOUNCED. No 8-K exists as of 2026-07-29; the most recent FSLR filing of any kind is an SC 13G/A on 2026-07-28 Q2 releases: 2022-07-28, 2023-07-27, 2024-07-30, 2025-07-31. A late-July / early-August 2026 release is therefore expected within days — but the company has not said so and the date is not written here as a fact
Q3 2026 results Not announced Q3 releases: 2022-10-27, 2023-10-31, 2024-10-29, 2025-10-30
FY2026 results + FY2027 guidance Not announced Q4 releases: 2023-02-28, 2024-02-27, 2025-02-25, 2026-02-24
USITC 337-TA-1494 target date / evidentiary hearing / initial determination UNKNOWN. Not disclosed in the 10-K or the 10-Q, and not estimated here —
§45X FEOC final Treasury/IRS guidance Pending; no date disclosed 10-Q refers to "related U.S. Treasury and IRS guidance" without dates

What each near-term event tests

Event The specific number that decides it
Q2 2026 results (imminent) (1) Does a bookings figure return to the release, and is it net or gross? Absent from the last two. (2) Backlog at 2026-06-30 — the series has fallen six quarters in a row from 72.8 GW to 47.9 GW. (3) Is FY2026 guidance ($4.9–5.2bn sales, $2.6–2.8bn Adj EBITDA, $2.10–2.19bn of §45X) reaffirmed a second time? FY2025 guidance was cut mid-year. (4) Was there a safe-harbour rush into the ~2026-07-04 deadline — a one-off bookings spike that pulls demand forward and deepens the 2027–28 hole?
Q3 2026 results (~late Oct 2026) The first quarter falling entirely after the safe-harbour deadline. This is the first clean read on post-cliff US order intake, and it lands inside the 12-month target window.
USITC 337-TA-1494 A general exclusion order would be the largest single positive re-rating event available to this name, and it is genuinely asymmetric. Undated — so nothing may be sized to it.
FY2027 guidance (~Feb 2027) The first guide that must contemplate a 2028 in which no new US project earns an ITC. Falls inside the 12-month window.

Monitoring triggers

  1. Backlog GW and aggregate transaction price, every 10-Q/10-K — the single most informative disclosure this company makes. Seven consecutive prints on file (§5 of the Research doc).
  2. Whether the bookings bullet returns, and whether it says "net" or "gross". The switch from net to gross occurred in the 2025-10-30 release, the same year 6.6 GW of backlog was terminated.
  3. The §45X assumption inside gross-profit guidance. FSLR quantifies it; the product margin is the residual.
  4. Whether GAAP EPS guidance is reinstated. Withdrawn for FY2026.
  5. §337 docket for a target date, at which point a dated structure becomes constructible.