Phase Space AI

Guardant Health

GH · investment memo

Valuation margin
demonstrated − required CAGR
+4.4%
Required CAGR
25.2%
Demonstrated
29.6%
Terminal margin
20.0%
Exit multiple
46.8x
Company state
C
Terminal margin basis

NOT PERSISTED BY THE SCAN AND NOT DERIVED - back-solved from the scan's published required_cagr_pct, and it returns exactly 0.2000 for NTRA, GH and TWST alike. The memo says so outright: 'A 20% terminal EBIT margin for a company running -44.5% today is an assumption, not a measurement.' m_EBIT,T 20.0 <= m_gross,T 64.5 SATISFIED. The break-even terminal margin is 15.4%, uncomfortably close.

Risk & exit

Four distinct questions, one field each. A price is not a thesis: the trigger below forces a re-underwrite and freezes further purchases — it is never an automatic sell.

Risk trigger
15% below the memo price
$121.85
Forward E[R]
vs a 0% floor
-7.1%

A daily close below $121.85 triggers a mandatory re-underwrite and freezes further purchases. It is not an automatic sell unless a separate fundamental invalidation condition has been breached.

Thesis-invalidation conditions

Not stated. This name has no falsifiable invalidation conditions on file, so it cannot be risk-monitored. That is a gap in the research, not a clean bill of health — recorded rather than hidden.

Impairment case

Not stated. No permanent-loss case with a named cause is on file. A valuation bear case is not an impairment case.

Documents

GH Company Research GH Valuation and Trade