Phase Space AI

Alphabet

GOOGL · investment memo

Valuation margin
demonstrated − required CAGR
+3.8%
Required CAGR
13.4%
Demonstrated
17.2%
Terminal margin
36.0%
Exit multiple
19.9x
Company state
A
Terminal margin basis

segment build (Services 44% at 62% mix, Cloud 38% at 37%, Other Bets -200% at 1%, Alphabet-level -3.5pp) cross-checked by the opex bridge m_gross,T 60.0 - R&D 15.0 - S&M 5.0 - G&A 2.5 - other 1.5 = 36.0. Constraint m_EBIT,T 36.0 <= m_gross,T 60.0 SATISFIED. ABOVE trailing (TTM 33.12%, Q2'26 34.0%). GOOGL_Valuation.md S3; the full build is retained under the `terminal_margin` key.

Risk & exit

Four distinct questions, one field each. A price is not a thesis: the trigger below forces a re-underwrite and freezes further purchases — it is never an automatic sell.

Risk trigger
12% below the memo price
$293.36
Forward E[R]
vs a 0% floor
+5.3%

A daily close below $293.36 triggers a mandatory re-underwrite and freezes further purchases. It is not an automatic sell unless a separate fundamental invalidation condition has been breached.

Thesis-invalidation conditions

Not stated. This name has no falsifiable invalidation conditions on file, so it cannot be risk-monitored. That is a gap in the research, not a clean bill of health — recorded rather than hidden.

Impairment case

Not stated. No permanent-loss case with a named cause is on file. A valuation bear case is not an impairment case.

Documents

Alphabet Research Document 2026-07-27 Alphabet Trade Construction 2026-07-27 Alphabet Valuation Analysis 2026-07-27