Grindr Inc [GRND]
Every figure is traced to a filed document. $000s unless stated. Sources: 10-K filed 2026-03-02 (FY2025),
10-K filed 2025-03-07 (FY2024), 10-K filed 2024-03-11 (FY2023), 10-K filed 2023-03-17 (FY2022), 10-Q filed
2026-05-08 (Q1'26), 8-K/Ex.99.1 filed 2026-05-07 (guidance), Q1'26 Shareholder Letter.
| FY | Revenue | YoY | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 145,833 | — | Full year, entirely pre-merger. Reported in the FY2022 10-K. |
| 2022 | 195,015 | +33.7% | Four full operating quarters — 43,530 / 46,555 / 50,402 / 54,528. De-SPAC closed 2022-11-18, inside this year. |
| 2023 | 259,691 | +33.2% | |
| 2024 | 344,636 | +32.7% | |
| 2025 | 439,898 | +27.6% |
Screen's demonstrated CAGR = (439,898 / 195,015)^(1/3) − 1 = 31.15%. Arithmetic verified.
The de-SPAC check. The window straddles the merger, which is the AIOT configuration. It is clean:
- The transaction was a reverse recapitalisation — legacy Grindr is the accounting acquirer, no goodwill
arises from the merger, and the operating company's history becomes the registrant's.
- FY2022 is four full operating quarters of as-reported revenue, not a stub, and FY2021 is a full
pre-merger year reported on the same basis.
- The quarterly series runs continuously through 2022-11-18 with no restatement, no discontinuity and no
pro-forma label.
- Goodwill is $275,703k at every reporting date from 2022-12-31 through 2026-03-31 — fourteen
consecutive quarters unchanged. No acquisitions inside the window. Zero acquired revenue.
| Quarter | Revenue | Derivation | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|
| Q1'24 | 75,345 | filed | — |
| Q2'24 | 82,345 | filed | — |
| Q3'24 | 89,325 | filed | — |
| Q4'24 | 97,621 | FY2024 344,636 − 9M'24 247,015 | — |
| Q1'25 | 93,938 | filed | +24.7% |
| Q2'25 | 104,220 | filed | +26.6% |
| Q3'25 | 115,766 | filed | +29.6% |
| Q4'25 | 125,974 | FY2025 439,898 − 9M'25 313,924 | +29.1% |
| Q1'26 | 129,941 | filed | +38.3% |
TTM to 2026-03-31 = 104,220 + 115,766 + 125,974 + 129,941 = 475,901. Matches the screen exactly.
Growth is accelerating, not decelerating — the opposite of OMDA, and the reason the trailing-CAGR overstatement on this name is conservatism rather than deceleration.
| Q1 | 2026 | 2025 | Growth |
|---|---|---|---|
| App-based (subscription) revenue | 106,656 | 80,082 | +33.2% |
| Advertising revenue | 23,285 | 13,856 | +68.1% |
| Total revenue | 129,941 | 93,938 | +38.3% |
| App-based share of total | 82.1% | 85.2% | −3.1pp |
| Advertising share of total | 17.9% | 14.8% | +3.1pp |
| Average Paying Users (000s) | 1,385 | 1,168 | +18.6% |
| ARPPU (monthly) | $25.63 | $22.86 | +12.1% |
Model these separately. App-based growth decomposes cleanly: 1.186 (users) × 1.121 (ARPPU) = 1.329, i.e. +33.2%. Volume contributes 18.6pp and price 12.1pp — roughly 60/40.
Advertising is the fastest line, has no contracted backlog, is spot-priced CPM inventory, and is where roughly 12 points of the 38.3% headline growth comes from. It is the lower-quality dollar and it is gaining mix at ~3pp/year.
Nomenclature note: "direct revenue" was renamed "app-based revenue" and "indirect revenue" renamed "advertising revenue" in FY2025. Both renames are disclosed and comparatives are consistent — this is not a retired disclosure.
No gross profit is tagged. Grindr publishes no GrossProfit in XBRL, so gross margin is
INDETERMINATE, never FAIL (D1: existence is not validity). The screen correctly recorded
gross_margin_pct: null.
| Period | Revenue | Operating income | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| FY2021 | 145,833 | 23,710 | 16.3% |
| FY2022 | 195,015 | 13,035 | 6.7% |
| FY2023 | 259,691 | 55,448 | 21.4% |
| FY2024 | 344,636 | 92,598 | 26.9% |
| FY2025 | 439,898 | 126,288 | 28.7% |
| Q1'25 | 93,938 | 25,392 | 27.0% |
| Q2'25 | 104,220 | 24,346 | 23.4% |
| Q3'25 | 115,766 | 45,241 | 39.1% |
| Q4'25 | 125,974 | 31,309 | 24.9% |
| Q1'26 | 129,941 | 42,727 | 32.9% |
TTM operating income = 24,346 + 45,241 + 31,309 + 42,727 = 143,623, a 30.2% TTM margin. The screen
carries 28.7%, which is FY2025 — flagged in GRND_Valuation.md §2.
FY2024 → FY2025 margin change is +1.8pp. Incremental operating leverage is visibly thinning off a high base — the input to the Short Mechanism Criteria (which returns NO, because growth is accelerating).
| Period | Net income | Why it diverges |
|---|---|---|
| FY2023 | −55,770 | Warrant and earnout fair-value remeasurement |
| FY2024 | −131,000 | Warrant remeasurement — against +92,598 of operating income |
| FY2025 | +94,750 | Warrants redeemed Feb-2025; remeasurement reverses |
| Q1'25 | 27,019 | Includes a $9,905 warrant fair-value gain |
| Q1'26 | 26,750 | No warrant effect; $9,170 income tax provision |
FY2024 shows a $131.0m net loss on $92.6m of operating income. Any model or screen keying on net income or GAAP EPS for this name across 2023–2025 is reading SPAC warrant mark-to-market, not the business. The warrants were fully redeemed on 2025-02-24, so from Q2'25 onward net income is clean.
Q1'26 EPS cross-check: 26,750 ÷ 183,323k weighted basic = $0.1459 vs filed $0.15 ✅; ÷ 185,091k diluted = $0.1445 vs filed $0.14 ✅.
| Q1 | 2026 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|
| Net income | 26,750 | 27,019 |
| Interest expense, net | 6,605 | 3,875 |
| Income tax provision | 9,170 | 4,551 |
| D&A | 983 | 3,477 |
| Litigation-related costs | 567 | 226 |
| Transaction-related costs | 23 | — |
| Stock-based compensation | 15,008 | 10,947 |
| Employee transition costs | (303) | 499 |
| Change in fair value of warrant liability | — | (9,905) |
| Other income | (330) | — |
| Adjusted EBITDA | 58,473 | 40,689 |
| Adjusted EBITDA margin | 45.0% | 43.3% |
| Net cash from operating activities | 33,466 | 23,793 |
| Free cash flow | 31,856 | 23,165 |
Adjusted EBITDA excludes $15,008k of share-based compensation — 11.6% of revenue, and 25.7% of the adjusted EBITDA figure itself. SBC grew +37% YoY against revenue +38%. This is a real economic cost, and the 45.0% margin should be read against a GAAP operating margin of 32.9%. The gap is disclosed and reconciled; it is not concealed.
Accruals check: Q1'26 net income 26,750 against operating cash flow 33,466 — cash exceeds earnings, accruals negative. Clean.
| 2026-03-31 | 2025-12-31 | |
|---|---|---|
| Cash and cash equivalents | 23,810 | 87,045 |
| Accounts receivable, net | 70,171 | 67,946 |
| Total current assets | 104,501 | 166,038 |
| Restricted cash | 605 | 605 |
| Capitalized software development, net | 15,396 | 12,993 |
| Intangible assets, net | 65,844 | 65,844 |
| Goodwill | 275,703 | 275,703 |
| Total assets | 470,924 | 531,031 |
| Current maturities of long-term debt, net | 20,000 | 20,000 |
| Deferred revenue | 24,538 | 24,285 |
| Total current liabilities | 79,441 | 84,923 |
| Long-term debt, net | 371,090 | 375,859 |
| Total liabilities | 470,085 | 484,025 |
| Total stockholders' equity | 839 | 47,006 |
Debt (Note 4): Senior Term Loan Facility $395,000 face, less $3,910 unamortised issuance and discount costs = $391,090 total debt, of which $20,000 current.
Net cash = 23,810 − 391,090 = −367,280. The screen carries −347,280, having used only the $371,090 non-current portion. The error is exactly $20,000,000.
Equity is $839 thousand. Goodwill + intangibles = $341,547k = 407x book equity; tangible book equity is −$340.7m. Equity fell from $319,816k at 2025-03-31 to $839k in twelve months, entirely through buyback charged to APIC (which fell $504,399k → $71,132k).
Debt trajectory: $279,908k (Q3'25) → $395,859k (Q4'25) → $391,090k (Q1'26). The $116m step-up funded the buyback via the 2025-12-16 amendment (term loan +$100m to $400m; revolver +$150m to $200m; maturity extended to 2031-01-01).
Leverage sanity, because the near-zero book equity looks alarming and is not the risk: - Total debt / TTM EBIT = 391,090 / 143,623 = 2.7x - Total debt / TTM adjusted EBITDA (~$215m annualised) ≈ 1.8x - Q1'26 cash interest paid $6,731 against operating income $42,727 = 6.4x covered - $200m revolver available; maturity 2031-01-01
This is not a distressed balance sheet. It is a deliberately levered one. The $839k equity figure is a buyback-accounting artefact.
| Date | Shares outstanding | Change |
|---|---|---|
| 2024-12-31 | 178,567,403 | — |
| 2025-03-31 | 201,936,383 | +30,733,623 warrant exercises, −8,268,937 repurchased |
| 2025-06-30 | 193,322,724 | |
| 2025-09-30 | 184,495,291 | |
| 2025-12-31 | 185,034,502 | |
| 2026-03-31 | 177,198,511 | |
| Cover page (2026-05-06) | 177,725,977 | screen value ✅ |
Q1'26 statement of stockholders' equity, share movements:
| Item | Shares | APIC effect |
|---|---|---|
| Vested RSUs, net of withholding | +453,978 | +3,898 |
| Exercise of stock options | +9,908 | +65 |
| Prepaid written put options settled | −1,594,650 | +10,930 |
| Accelerated share repurchase | −3,439,381 | −50,000 |
| Forward repurchase transactions | −3,265,846 | −50,635 |
| Excise tax on repurchases | — | −968 |
| Stock-based compensation | — | +13,793 |
Repurchase history: FY2024 $0 · Q1'25 $141,139 (8,268,937 shares at $17.07) · FY2025 total $450,506 · Q1'26 $100,635 (zero open-market; all via derivatives).
Settlement prices matter for the entry decision: ASR inception closing price $11.63; prepaid put settlement effective price $12.11. Spot is $16.62.
Unsettled at 2026-03-31: ASR and FRT both settle "no later than the third quarter of 2026" on VWAP. The FRT's embedded settlement features were not considered indexed to Grindr's own stock under ASC 815-40 and were bifurcated as a derivative, with "upper and lower price thresholds that limit the range of shares deliverable". The final share count is unknown and price-dependent — do not model it as fixed.
Re-dilution: the A&R 2022 Equity Incentive Plan approved 2026-06-02 added 11,600,000 shares to the reserve — 6.5% of the current count, against a buyback that retired 12.5%.
Modelling instruction: the 12-month target uses 172,000,000 shares, below the current 177.7m to reflect ASR/FRT settlement, with no further buyback assumed. That is deliberately conservative in one direction (ignores further repurchase capacity) and conservative in the other (ignores the 11.6m-share plan increase).
| Assumption | Value | Source / status |
|---|---|---|
| FY2026 revenue | at least $535m (+21.6%) | Company guidance, 8-K 2026-05-07. Raised. Note "at least" — a floor, not a midpoint. |
| FY2026 adjusted EBITDA | at least $227m (42.4% margin) | Company guidance, same. Raised. |
| Implied Q2–Q4'26 growth at the floor | +17.1% | Derived: ($535m − $129.941m) ÷ ($439.898m − $93.938m) |
| FY2027 revenue growth | 15% / 20% / 25% scenarios | NOT GUIDED. Base case 20%. |
| Terminal operating margin | 30.18% | Own TTM operating margin, held flat for five years. max(own, growth-matched peer median 13.7%) → own. No expansion credited. |
| Exit multiple | 23.65x EBIT | GROWTH_MATCHED, n=200, ±50% growth band. Within 2.4% of the current 23.1x — no compression assumed. |
| WACC | 10.0% | Framework standard |
| 12-month target multiple | 7.60x EV/Sales | 50th percentile of GRND's own 868-day post-de-SPAC history. Current 6.98x = 37th percentile. |
| Edge revenue contribution | ZERO modelled | Management places its impact in 2027; no date, price point or attach rate disclosed. |
| Street consensus | NOT RETRIEVED | Alpha Vantage quota exhausted. Consensus Criteria INDETERMINATE; blocks nothing. |