Phase Space AI

Financial Model Notes

Grindr Inc [GRND]

Grindr Inc [GRND] — Financial Model Notes

Every figure is traced to a filed document. $000s unless stated. Sources: 10-K filed 2026-03-02 (FY2025), 10-K filed 2025-03-07 (FY2024), 10-K filed 2024-03-11 (FY2023), 10-K filed 2023-03-17 (FY2022), 10-Q filed 2026-05-08 (Q1'26), 8-K/Ex.99.1 filed 2026-05-07 (guidance), Q1'26 Shareholder Letter.


1. Revenue — annual, spanning the de-SPAC

FY Revenue YoY Note
2021 145,833 Full year, entirely pre-merger. Reported in the FY2022 10-K.
2022 195,015 +33.7% Four full operating quarters — 43,530 / 46,555 / 50,402 / 54,528. De-SPAC closed 2022-11-18, inside this year.
2023 259,691 +33.2%
2024 344,636 +32.7%
2025 439,898 +27.6%

Screen's demonstrated CAGR = (439,898 / 195,015)^(1/3) − 1 = 31.15%. Arithmetic verified.

The de-SPAC check. The window straddles the merger, which is the AIOT configuration. It is clean: - The transaction was a reverse recapitalisation — legacy Grindr is the accounting acquirer, no goodwill arises from the merger, and the operating company's history becomes the registrant's. - FY2022 is four full operating quarters of as-reported revenue, not a stub, and FY2021 is a full pre-merger year reported on the same basis. - The quarterly series runs continuously through 2022-11-18 with no restatement, no discontinuity and no pro-forma label. - Goodwill is $275,703k at every reporting date from 2022-12-31 through 2026-03-31 — fourteen consecutive quarters unchanged. No acquisitions inside the window. Zero acquired revenue.


2. Revenue — quarterly build

Quarter Revenue Derivation YoY
Q1'24 75,345 filed
Q2'24 82,345 filed
Q3'24 89,325 filed
Q4'24 97,621 FY2024 344,636 − 9M'24 247,015
Q1'25 93,938 filed +24.7%
Q2'25 104,220 filed +26.6%
Q3'25 115,766 filed +29.6%
Q4'25 125,974 FY2025 439,898 − 9M'25 313,924 +29.1%
Q1'26 129,941 filed +38.3%

TTM to 2026-03-31 = 104,220 + 115,766 + 125,974 + 129,941 = 475,901. Matches the screen exactly.

Growth is accelerating, not decelerating — the opposite of OMDA, and the reason the trailing-CAGR overstatement on this name is conservatism rather than deceleration.


3. Revenue by line, and the operating decomposition

Q1 2026 2025 Growth
App-based (subscription) revenue 106,656 80,082 +33.2%
Advertising revenue 23,285 13,856 +68.1%
Total revenue 129,941 93,938 +38.3%
App-based share of total 82.1% 85.2% −3.1pp
Advertising share of total 17.9% 14.8% +3.1pp
Average Paying Users (000s) 1,385 1,168 +18.6%
ARPPU (monthly) $25.63 $22.86 +12.1%

Model these separately. App-based growth decomposes cleanly: 1.186 (users) × 1.121 (ARPPU) = 1.329, i.e. +33.2%. Volume contributes 18.6pp and price 12.1pp — roughly 60/40.

Advertising is the fastest line, has no contracted backlog, is spot-priced CPM inventory, and is where roughly 12 points of the 38.3% headline growth comes from. It is the lower-quality dollar and it is gaining mix at ~3pp/year.

Nomenclature note: "direct revenue" was renamed "app-based revenue" and "indirect revenue" renamed "advertising revenue" in FY2025. Both renames are disclosed and comparatives are consistent — this is not a retired disclosure.

No gross profit is tagged. Grindr publishes no GrossProfit in XBRL, so gross margin is INDETERMINATE, never FAIL (D1: existence is not validity). The screen correctly recorded gross_margin_pct: null.


4. Operating income and margin

Period Revenue Operating income Margin
FY2021 145,833 23,710 16.3%
FY2022 195,015 13,035 6.7%
FY2023 259,691 55,448 21.4%
FY2024 344,636 92,598 26.9%
FY2025 439,898 126,288 28.7%
Q1'25 93,938 25,392 27.0%
Q2'25 104,220 24,346 23.4%
Q3'25 115,766 45,241 39.1%
Q4'25 125,974 31,309 24.9%
Q1'26 129,941 42,727 32.9%

TTM operating income = 24,346 + 45,241 + 31,309 + 42,727 = 143,623, a 30.2% TTM margin. The screen carries 28.7%, which is FY2025 — flagged in GRND_Valuation.md §2.

FY2024 → FY2025 margin change is +1.8pp. Incremental operating leverage is visibly thinning off a high base — the input to the Short Mechanism Criteria (which returns NO, because growth is accelerating).


5. Net income is noise — use operating income

Period Net income Why it diverges
FY2023 −55,770 Warrant and earnout fair-value remeasurement
FY2024 −131,000 Warrant remeasurement — against +92,598 of operating income
FY2025 +94,750 Warrants redeemed Feb-2025; remeasurement reverses
Q1'25 27,019 Includes a $9,905 warrant fair-value gain
Q1'26 26,750 No warrant effect; $9,170 income tax provision

FY2024 shows a $131.0m net loss on $92.6m of operating income. Any model or screen keying on net income or GAAP EPS for this name across 2023–2025 is reading SPAC warrant mark-to-market, not the business. The warrants were fully redeemed on 2025-02-24, so from Q2'25 onward net income is clean.

Q1'26 EPS cross-check: 26,750 ÷ 183,323k weighted basic = $0.1459 vs filed $0.15 ✅; ÷ 185,091k diluted = $0.1445 vs filed $0.14 ✅.


6. Adjusted EBITDA and cash conversion

Q1 2026 2025
Net income 26,750 27,019
Interest expense, net 6,605 3,875
Income tax provision 9,170 4,551
D&A 983 3,477
Litigation-related costs 567 226
Transaction-related costs 23
Stock-based compensation 15,008 10,947
Employee transition costs (303) 499
Change in fair value of warrant liability (9,905)
Other income (330)
Adjusted EBITDA 58,473 40,689
Adjusted EBITDA margin 45.0% 43.3%
Net cash from operating activities 33,466 23,793
Free cash flow 31,856 23,165

Adjusted EBITDA excludes $15,008k of share-based compensation — 11.6% of revenue, and 25.7% of the adjusted EBITDA figure itself. SBC grew +37% YoY against revenue +38%. This is a real economic cost, and the 45.0% margin should be read against a GAAP operating margin of 32.9%. The gap is disclosed and reconciled; it is not concealed.

Accruals check: Q1'26 net income 26,750 against operating cash flow 33,466 — cash exceeds earnings, accruals negative. Clean.


7. Balance sheet, 2026-03-31 — the dominant modelling fact

2026-03-31 2025-12-31
Cash and cash equivalents 23,810 87,045
Accounts receivable, net 70,171 67,946
Total current assets 104,501 166,038
Restricted cash 605 605
Capitalized software development, net 15,396 12,993
Intangible assets, net 65,844 65,844
Goodwill 275,703 275,703
Total assets 470,924 531,031
Current maturities of long-term debt, net 20,000 20,000
Deferred revenue 24,538 24,285
Total current liabilities 79,441 84,923
Long-term debt, net 371,090 375,859
Total liabilities 470,085 484,025
Total stockholders' equity 839 47,006

Debt (Note 4): Senior Term Loan Facility $395,000 face, less $3,910 unamortised issuance and discount costs = $391,090 total debt, of which $20,000 current.

Net cash = 23,810 − 391,090 = −367,280. The screen carries −347,280, having used only the $371,090 non-current portion. The error is exactly $20,000,000.

Equity is $839 thousand. Goodwill + intangibles = $341,547k = 407x book equity; tangible book equity is −$340.7m. Equity fell from $319,816k at 2025-03-31 to $839k in twelve months, entirely through buyback charged to APIC (which fell $504,399k → $71,132k).

Debt trajectory: $279,908k (Q3'25) → $395,859k (Q4'25) → $391,090k (Q1'26). The $116m step-up funded the buyback via the 2025-12-16 amendment (term loan +$100m to $400m; revolver +$150m to $200m; maturity extended to 2031-01-01).

Leverage sanity, because the near-zero book equity looks alarming and is not the risk: - Total debt / TTM EBIT = 391,090 / 143,623 = 2.7x - Total debt / TTM adjusted EBITDA (~$215m annualised) ≈ 1.8x - Q1'26 cash interest paid $6,731 against operating income $42,727 = 6.4x covered - $200m revolver available; maturity 2031-01-01

This is not a distressed balance sheet. It is a deliberately levered one. The $839k equity figure is a buyback-accounting artefact.


8. Share count and the buyback mechanics

Date Shares outstanding Change
2024-12-31 178,567,403
2025-03-31 201,936,383 +30,733,623 warrant exercises, −8,268,937 repurchased
2025-06-30 193,322,724
2025-09-30 184,495,291
2025-12-31 185,034,502
2026-03-31 177,198,511
Cover page (2026-05-06) 177,725,977 screen value ✅

Q1'26 statement of stockholders' equity, share movements:

Item Shares APIC effect
Vested RSUs, net of withholding +453,978 +3,898
Exercise of stock options +9,908 +65
Prepaid written put options settled −1,594,650 +10,930
Accelerated share repurchase −3,439,381 −50,000
Forward repurchase transactions −3,265,846 −50,635
Excise tax on repurchases −968
Stock-based compensation +13,793

Repurchase history: FY2024 $0 · Q1'25 $141,139 (8,268,937 shares at $17.07) · FY2025 total $450,506 · Q1'26 $100,635 (zero open-market; all via derivatives).

Settlement prices matter for the entry decision: ASR inception closing price $11.63; prepaid put settlement effective price $12.11. Spot is $16.62.

Unsettled at 2026-03-31: ASR and FRT both settle "no later than the third quarter of 2026" on VWAP. The FRT's embedded settlement features were not considered indexed to Grindr's own stock under ASC 815-40 and were bifurcated as a derivative, with "upper and lower price thresholds that limit the range of shares deliverable". The final share count is unknown and price-dependent — do not model it as fixed.

Re-dilution: the A&R 2022 Equity Incentive Plan approved 2026-06-02 added 11,600,000 shares to the reserve — 6.5% of the current count, against a buyback that retired 12.5%.

Modelling instruction: the 12-month target uses 172,000,000 shares, below the current 177.7m to reflect ASR/FRT settlement, with no further buyback assumed. That is deliberately conservative in one direction (ignores further repurchase capacity) and conservative in the other (ignores the 11.6m-share plan increase).


9. Forward assumptions used, and their sources

Assumption Value Source / status
FY2026 revenue at least $535m (+21.6%) Company guidance, 8-K 2026-05-07. Raised. Note "at least" — a floor, not a midpoint.
FY2026 adjusted EBITDA at least $227m (42.4% margin) Company guidance, same. Raised.
Implied Q2–Q4'26 growth at the floor +17.1% Derived: ($535m − $129.941m) ÷ ($439.898m − $93.938m)
FY2027 revenue growth 15% / 20% / 25% scenarios NOT GUIDED. Base case 20%.
Terminal operating margin 30.18% Own TTM operating margin, held flat for five years. max(own, growth-matched peer median 13.7%) → own. No expansion credited.
Exit multiple 23.65x EBIT GROWTH_MATCHED, n=200, ±50% growth band. Within 2.4% of the current 23.1x — no compression assumed.
WACC 10.0% Framework standard
12-month target multiple 7.60x EV/Sales 50th percentile of GRND's own 868-day post-de-SPAC history. Current 6.98x = 37th percentile.
Edge revenue contribution ZERO modelled Management places its impact in 2027; no date, price point or attach rate disclosed.
Street consensus NOT RETRIEVED Alpha Vantage quota exhausted. Consensus Criteria INDETERMINATE; blocks nothing.

10. Items deliberately left blank