HIMS · investment memo
ABOVE anything ever demonstrated - best-ever FY EBIT margin is 4.5% (FY2025) and TTM is -1.3%. Set equal to the company's OWN translated 2030 target: $1,300m Adj EBITDA less SBC at FY2025's 5.8% of revenue less D&A at Q1'26's annualised 3.6%, on $6,500m revenue = $689m EBIT = 10.6% margin. Constraint m_EBIT,T 10.0 <= m_gross,T 65.2 SATISFIED. This is a GENEROUS terminal margin, not a conservative one, so the FAIL below is understated rather than overstated.
Four distinct questions, one field each. A price is not a thesis: the trigger below forces a re-underwrite and freezes further purchases — it is never an automatic sell.
A daily close below $18.51 triggers a mandatory re-underwrite and freezes further purchases. It is not an automatic sell unless a separate fundamental invalidation condition has been breached.
Not stated. This name has no falsifiable invalidation conditions on file, so it cannot be risk-monitored. That is a gap in the research, not a clean bill of health — recorded rather than hidden.
Permanent-loss scenario with a named cause: enforcement, not volatility. *Bear case (probability 35%): the §503A exemption is closed to HIMS by action rather than by argument.* Named cause — any one of: (a) the DOJ referral produces an FDCA/Title-18 action; (b) the FDA executes the API restriction it announced in February 2026 naming HIMS; (c) Novo refiles the '343 patent suit (dismissed *without prejudice*, right to refile expressly reserved, patent runs to 5 Dec 2031) and obtains the injunction it asked for. Effect: the compounded remainder of the "personalized" >70%-of-US-revenue category g