Hims & Hers Health [HIMS]
Catalyst Criteria: MEASURED. Dated events that would confirm or refute the Valuation Criteria implied path. Time works for a long, so a dated event is not required to own a compounder — but here the implied path fails and the events are what would change it.
Every date below is sourced. Undated items are labelled undated rather than guessed — a fabricated catalyst date is worse than an absent calendar.
| Date | Event | Source | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mon 10 Aug 2026 | Q2 2026 results, after close; call 5:00pm ET | company IR announcement, 13 Jul 2026 | The dominant event. First full quarter of the post-compounding US business; first quarter of the membership programme (launched end-March); first clean read on branded-GLP-1 gross margin; first test of the back-half-loaded FY guide. Guidance: revenue $680–700m, Adj EBITDA $35–55m (5–8% margin). Aug-21 options price 113% IV into it against 89.6% realised. Reads I1, I2, C1, C2, C3, C4, C6 |
| 9 Oct 2026 | Chief Accounting Officer resignation effective — Irene Becklund, CAO and Principal Accounting Officer | 8-K filed 2026-07-17, acc. 0001773751-26-000149 | Stated as "not the result of any dispute or disagreement." Logged as a fact during an open SEC enforcement investigation into the company's disclosures. No inference drawn |
| ~early Nov 2026 | Q3 2026 results | pattern: Q3'25 reported 3 Nov 2025; date not yet announced — inferred from pattern, not confirmed | The guide implies ~$801m in Q3, +17% sequential from a quarter that printed −1.6% sequential. Reads I3 |
| mid-CY2026 | Eucalyptus acquisition expected to close — up to $1.15bn, ~$240m cash at close, deferred payments over 18 months, earn-outs through early 2029. Subject to regulatory approvals | 10-Q Q1'26; company announcement 19 Feb 2026 | Excluded from all current guidance. Consolidates >$450m of Australian GLP-1 telehealth revenue — and concentrates the regulatory exposure into a second jurisdiction. Worth ~12 points of the 12-month target |
| ~late Feb 2027 | FY2026 10-K and first FY2027 guidance | pattern: FY2025 10-K filed 23 Feb 2026 | The first annual shareholder letter under the new cadence, replacing the retired quarterly letter. The disclosure-narrowing decision gets tested here |
| 5 Dec 2031 | Novo Nordisk US Patent 8,12,343 expires | 10-Q Note 14 | The term of the permanent injunction Novo sought in the suit it dismissed without prejudice on 9 Mar 2026, reserving the right to refile. Sets the outer bound of that specific exposure |
| 15 May 2030 | $1.0bn 0% convertible senior notes mature | 10-Q Note 13 | No coupon, no accretion. Not a near-term refinancing event; it is the reason "going concern" is not argued |
| Event | Status | Trigger |
|---|---|---|
| FTC + California + Utah v. Hims & Hers, N.D. Cal. | FILED 29 Jul 2026. Health data shared with Meta/Snap; charging immediately after intake form; obstructed cancellation. Company denies, will "vigorously defend." Accrual $15.0m, which the company itself flagged could be "materially higher" | Docket schedule not yet set. Any preliminary-injunction motion on the intake-to-billing flow would be the acute event — that flow is the conversion funnel |
| DOJ investigation | HHS General Counsel referred HIMS in Feb 2026 for potential FDCA and Title 18 violations. "At this time, it is unclear what actions the FDA, HHS, or DOJ may take" | Any complaint or CID. Immediate-exit trigger (C5) |
| SEC Division of Enforcement investigation | Opened Feb 2026; document-preservation request covering public statements and disclosures regarding compounded semaglutide and related business relationships | Wells notice, or closure without action (I5) |
| FDA GLP-1 API restriction | Announced Feb 2026 in a statement naming HIMS directly; intent to restrict GLP-1 APIs for non-approved compounded drugs mass-marketed as alternatives. Not yet executed | Publication of the restriction. Directly attacks the §503A residual |
| Novo Nordisk '343 refiling | Dismissed without prejudice 9 Mar 2026; right to refile expressly reserved | New complaint. Immediate-exit trigger (C5) |
| §503A Bulks List — peptides | FDA Pharmacy Compounding Advisory Committee met 23–24 Jul 2026 on seven peptides. FDA staff recommended against all seven. Panel backed BPC-157, KPV, TB-500 (8-6-1) and MOTS-C (7-5-2); declined emideltide (DSIP). HIMS CMO Dr Anant Vinjamoori testified 23 Jul; HIMS ran a consumer peptides campaign into the meeting. Recommendations are non-binding | FDA's decision on whether to adopt, over its own staff's objection. This is the legal gate on the next personalized category (I4). No statutory deadline |
| Securities class action — In re Hims & Hers Health, Inc. Securities Litigation, No. 25-cv-05315 (N.D. Cal.) | Amended consolidated complaint filed 29 Jan 2026; class period 29 Apr – 22 Jun 2025, i.e. the Novo collaboration announcement to its termination. Company: loss not currently probable, no estimate | Motion-to-dismiss ruling |
| Derivative actions — Jones v. Dudum (25-cv-5866), Herman v. Dudum (25-cv-6326), Popper v. Dudum (25-cv-7337), all N.D. Cal. | Stayed | Lifting of the stay |
Everything decision-relevant clusters on one date: 10 August 2026. US revenue, gross margin with branded GLP-1 in the mix, the rebate receivable, the accounts-payable build, whether the FY guide survives, and whether Adjusted EBITDA gets redefined a third time — all readable in a single filing, twelve days from now. The August options market is charging 113% implied vol against 89.6% realised to hold risk across it, which is the market's own estimate of how much is unresolved.
After 10 August the calendar goes dark by design. The quarterly shareholder letter is being retired; the enforcement items are all undated; and the one metric that would settle the central question — GLP-1 revenue — has never been published and is at the company's discretion. A name whose thesis resolves on undated enforcement events and whose voluntary disclosure is contracting is a name to size small and monitor on the 10-Q, not the press release.