HIVE · investment memo
NOT ESTABLISHED, and null is the correct record. HIVE is loss-making and valuation.md requires a named, evidenced mechanism before a loss-maker may be granted a positive terminal margin. The prose supplies none, and the direction of the evidence is against one: the gross MINING margin fell from 49% to 24% in two quarters, group gross margin is not tagged at all (INDETERMINATE), the protocol halves the block reward again in 2028, and the HPC leg that would carry any margin story is 6.5% of the latest quarter and shrinking (-5.0% q/q). No peer-median substitute is used.
Four distinct questions, one field each. A price is not a thesis: the trigger below forces a re-underwrite and freezes further purchases — it is never an automatic sell.
A daily close below $1.90 triggers a mandatory re-underwrite and freezes further purchases. It is not an automatic sell unless a separate fundamental invalidation condition has been breached.
Not stated. This name has no falsifiable invalidation conditions on file, so it cannot be risk-monitored. That is a gap in the research, not a clean bill of health — recorded rather than hidden.
Named cause: bitcoin price, compounded by an exhausted funding source. Gross mining margin is already at 24% (from 49% two quarters earlier) with mining at 93.4% of FY2026 revenue. The bitcoin treasury that funded the last capex cycle has been liquidated from $181.1m to $10.8m. Power above 37.5MW in New Brunswick is interruptible/market-priced and Sweden is on Nord Pool, so a low bitcoin price coinciding with a power-price spike compresses margin toward zero with no treasury buffer. The remaining funding levers are equity (shares already +61.5% in 14 months) and the $115m of exchangeable notes